Selasa, 14 Mei 2019

Uber and Lyft Get Creative With Numbers, but Investors Aren’t Blind to the Losses - The Wall Street Journal

Traders at the New York Stock Exchange during Uber’s IPO on May 10. Photo: Xinhua/Zuma Press

Uber Technologies Inc., UBER -10.75% Lyft Inc. LYFT -5.75% and other big startups going public now have touted their new business models that disrupt old industries but lose historic amounts of money.

To try to win over investors, they have also come up with unusual alternatives for measuring their performance. So far, investors aren’t buying it.

The ride-hailing rivals have struggled after debuting on the public markets with the two largest-ever 12-month losses for American startups preceding an IPO. Uber, with a $3.7 billion loss in the 12 months through March, priced its shares at the low end of expectations and its stock has fallen about 18% from Friday’s offering price. Lyft, with a loss of $911 million last year, has fallen about 33% since its debut in March.

Both companies provide financial measures they say better measure their performance. However, these measures ignore significant expenses. Uber calls this “core platform contribution profit,” and on this basis, it made $940 million last year versus a $3 billion operating loss. Lyft’s “contribution” profit, measured differently, was $921 million.

Some companies turn around after poor public debuts. And Uber and Lyft aren’t alone in creating unconventional metrics that mask large losses.

WeWork Cos., the shared office space company, filed for an IPO in December—its executives say it should be treated like a tech firm—after inventing a new profit metric called “community-adjusted Ebitda.”

The measurement flipped WeWork’s bottom line last year from a net loss of about $1.9 billion, using standard accounting, to a profit of $467 million, using the company’s preferred measure. The loss, based on generally accepted accounting principles, would be the second largest in history among U.S. startups going public—between Uber and Lyft—according to S&P Global Market Intelligence.

“The early investors are trying to find some sucker who will buy the stock in the public market,” said Howard Schilit, a forensic accountant known for detecting accounting tricks. “In order to sell the deals, they make up a fact pattern that is nonsensical.”

Spokesmen for WeWork and Uber declined to comment. A Lyft spokesman said the contribution figure is meant to help investors understand how its margins are expanding.

The creative accounting is reminiscent of the late 1990s dot-com bubble, when money-losing companies went public touting “pro forma” profit as a better measure of financial performance. More recently, Silicon Valley startups have pushed unconventional financial terms like “annual recurring revenue,” “billings” and “bookings” that can inflate their actual performance.

Many companies argue these nontraditional metrics are better measures for understanding the growth trajectory of their businesses. Venture capitalists often place a premium on startups that can grow quickly, ignoring some upfront expenses. Marketing costs, for example, might push companies into the red at first, but if customers who sign up are highly profitable in the long run, the losses would be worth the investment today, venture capitalists and entrepreneurs say.

New Math

A look at creative ways tech companies have measured their financial performance ahead of IPOs

Groupon

Uber

WeWork

Operating loss (2010)

Operating loss (2018)

Net loss (2018)

–$3.0 billion

–$1.9 billion

–$420 million

New metric:

Adjusted consolidated

segment operating income

New metric:

Core platform

contribution profit

New metric:

Community-adjusted

Ebitda

$940 million

$60.6 million

$467 million

Excludes:

Marketing expenses related to subscriber acquisition

Excludes:

‘‘Unallocated’’ costs such as research for self-driving cars

Excludes:

Basic expenses like marketing related to growth

Company’s reason:

Marketing costs are an upfront investment for growth

Company’s reason:

Shows profitability for active WeWork buildings

Company’s reason:

Better measures costs tied to the ride-hailing and delivery businesses

Groupon

Uber

WeWork

Operating loss (2010)

Operating loss (2018)

Net loss (2018)

–$420 million

–$1.9 billion

–$3.0 billion

New metric:

Adjusted consolidated

segment operating income

New metric:

Core platform

contribution profit

New metric:

Community-adjusted

Ebitda

$940 million

$60.6 million

$467 million

Excludes:

Marketing expenses related to subscriber acquisition

Excludes:

Basic expenses like marketing related to growth

Excludes:

‘‘Unallocated’’ costs such as research for self-driving cars

Company’s reason:

Marketing costs are an upfront investment for growth

Company’s reason:

Better measures costs tied to the ride-hailing and delivery businesses

Company’s reason:

Shows profitability for active WeWork buildings

Groupon

WeWork

Uber

Operating loss (2010)

Net loss (2018)

Operating loss (2018)

–$1.9 billion

–$3.0 billion

–$420 million

New metric:

Adjusted consolidated

segment operating income

New metric:

Community-adjusted

Ebitda

New metric:

Core platform

contribution profit

$940 million

$60.6 million

$467 million

Excludes:

Marketing expenses related to subscriber acquisition

Excludes:

‘‘Unallocated’’ costs such as research for self-driving cars

Excludes:

Basic expenses like marketing related to growth

Company’s reason:

Marketing costs are an upfront investment for growth

Company’s reason:

Better measures costs tied to the ride-hailing and delivery businesses

Company’s reason:

Shows profitability for active WeWork buildings

Uber

Operating loss (2018)

–$3.0 billion

New metric:

Core platform contribution profit

$940 million

Excludes:

‘‘Unallocated’’ costs such as research for self-driving cars

Company’s reason:

Better measures costs tied to the ride-hailing and delivery businesses

WeWork

Net loss (2018)

–$1.9 billion

New metric:

Community-adjusted Ebitda

$467 million

Excludes:

Basic expenses like marketing related to growth

Company’s reason:

Shows profitability for active WeWork buildings

Groupon

Operating loss (2010)

–$420 million

New metric:

Adjusted consolidated segment

operating income

$60.6 million

Excludes:

Marketing expenses related to subscriber acquisition

Company’s reason:

Marketing costs are an upfront investment for growth

Source: the companies

Once startups go public, they must explain non-GAAP financial terms and disclose how they differ from traditional accounting, as required by law. Accounting watchdogs warn investors not to ignore standard measures, which exist to make financial statements easily comparable across companies.

Companies are reporting rosier numbers than their financials would indicate if they were using standard accounting practices. The members of the S&P 500 index reported earnings in 2018 that were $19 a share higher using adjusted profit measures, according to Howard Silverblatt, a senior index analyst at S&P Dow Jones Indices.

That figure is double the average increase of the past 10 years. Since 1980, only recessionary periods have seen similar increases in the difference between companies’ preferred profit measures and the standard figures as such periods are often accompanied by large write-offs.

The growing gap is something investors need to keep their eyes on, Mr. Silverblatt said. “These are real expenses and could be indications that companies are running into difficulty.”

In 2000, in the wake of the dot-com bust, Lynn Turner, chief accountant at the Securities and Exchange Commission, lamented what he called “EBS” earnings reports, or “Everything but Bad Stuff.”

Still, tech companies have tried to push the envelope with regard to problematic financial performance. And many firms have failed to convince investors.

In 2011, Groupon Inc. touted in the first three pages of its IPO filing a metric it created called “adjusted consolidated segment operating income,” or ACSOI. The measurement didn’t include subscriber-acquisition expenses like marketing costs, causing its $420 million operating loss in 2010 to flip to a $60.6 million profit. It ended up taking out ACSOI from its IPO filing due to pressure from the SEC and its shares dropped sharply after its public offering.

In 2015, Yahoo Inc.’s then-CEO Marissa Mayertried to sell investors a new revenue measure she called “Mavens”—an acronym for mobile, video, native advertising and social—that tracked smaller parts of the business that were growing even as the lion’s share continued to fall. The metric was widely panned and two years later, Yahoo sold its core business to Verizon Communications Inc. at a steep discount from where the company had once been valued.

WeWork’s community-adjusted Ebitda excludes hundreds of millions of dollars in operating expenses and recognizes up front the discounts it gets for signing long-term leases, instead of amortizing them over the life of the lease. WeWork says the measure better isolates the costs associated with active buildings.

Uber’s “contribution profit” ignores hundreds of millions of dollars in research and development expenses—including those aimed at self-driving technology—even though it has said such efforts are important to its future. Lyft says “contribution” is a key measure “of our ability to achieve profitability,” but the figure ignored nearly $2 billion in 2018 operating expenses that pushed it deeply into the red.

Any tech investors concerned about how companies report their numbers are losing power to do much about it. Lyft and WeWork are among technology companies giving supervoting shares to founders, a move that has grown more common among startups.

According to data form Jay Ritter, a professor at the University of Florida who studies IPOs, a third of tech companies that went public from 2015 through 2018 had supervoting shares, up from an average of 6% in the previous years dating back to 1980. A 10th of non-tech IPOs had supervoting shares the past 38 years.

Share Your Thoughts

What do you think is the best way to measure Uber and Lyft’s financial performance? Net loss or profit? “Contribution” profit? Something else? Join the conversation below.

Write to Rolfe Winkler at rolfe.winkler@wsj.com

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https://www.wsj.com/articles/uber-and-lyft-get-creative-with-numbers-but-investors-arent-blind-to-the-losses-11557826202

2019-05-14 09:30:00Z
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Roundup weedkiller cancer claim: Bayer to appeal latest verdict - Axios

Bayer said Monday it would appeal an Oakland, California, jury's decision to award more than $2 billion in damages to a couple it found contracted cancer after being exposed to Roundup weed killer for over 30 years.

Why it matters: Alva and Alberta Pilliod's case marks the 3rd verdict against Roundup weed killer to have been brought by people who contracted cancer. Bayer, which acquired Monsanto last year, faces more than 13,400 U.S. lawsuits over allegations that the herbicide is a cancer risk, per Reuters. It denies the product's a health hazard.

The backdrop: In March, a federal jury in San Francisco said Bayer must pay roughly $80 million in damages to a California man after exposure to Roundup. The company was ordered to pay $78.6 million in damages over a 2018 case.

The big picture: The Environmental Protection Authority says that glyphosate, the active ingredient in Roundup, does not cause cancer or other health risks if it is used according to instructions, something Bayer noted in its statement responding to the latest finding.

"We have great sympathy for Mr. and Mrs. Pilliod, but the evidence in this case was clear that both have long histories of illnesses known to be substantial risk factors for non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL), most NHL has no known cause, and there is not reliable scientific evidence to conclude that glyphosate-based herbicides were the 'but for' cause of their illnesses as the jury was required to find in this case.
"The contrast between today's verdict and EPA's conclusion that there are 'no risks to public health from the current registered uses of glyphosate' could not be more stark."

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https://www.axios.com/roundup-weedkiller-cancer-claim-bayer-to-appeal-1d50f2da-c59d-4f63-a290-17af959e26d8.html

2019-05-14 08:39:00Z
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Walmart announces next-day delivery, firing back at Amazon - CNBC

Walmart announces same-day delivery for shoppers' orders more than $35.

Source: Walmart

Walmart is firing back.

The biggest retailer in the world will now offer shoppers the option to have their online orders delivered the next day, following Amazon on April 25 promising one-day delivery for all Amazon Prime members and spending $800 million to improve its delivery infrastructure to make this possible.

Walmart on Tuesday is beginning its rollout of next-day delivery, starting in Phoenix and Las Vegas, the company announced in a blog post. The option will be available in Southern California over the next few days. And it will expand to reach roughly 75% of American consumers by the end of 2019, including 40 of the top 50 major metros in the U.S., according to Walmart.

Amazon hasn't yet detailed a timeline for its own rollout of next-day shipping. But even before its April announcement, the company had offered same-day and two-hour delivery for Prime members in certain markets, for certain products and at an additional cost. Amazon's next-day shipping plan expands the number of items and ZIP codes eligible for expedited service.

Walmart isn't disclosing the cost of its latest delivery push. But the company says it's been working on it for quite some time.

In January 2017, Walmart started offering free, two-day shipping for orders totaling more than $35, dropping its minimum purchase threshold, which had been $50 up until then. It had already bought Jet.com for $3 billion in 2016 to juice its online business and compete with Amazon. That deal helped it reach shoppers in bigger cities, like New York, in less time.

"We have been working on this for the past several years," Marc Lore, the head of Walmart's e-commerce business in the U.S., said about the move toward next-day shipping. "We've been investing ... and now we are in the position to reap the benefits."

To start, next-day delivery will be available for roughly 220,000 items "most frequently purchased" online, Walmart said, including toys and electronics. The company said it plans to make more items available to ship next-day over time. And the option is only free for orders over $35. Amazon, for comparison, has no minimum purchase threshold for free, next-day delivery but requires customers to have a Prime membership, which costs $119 annually.

"This is the future of the Walmart.com supply chain," Lore said. "The more products we add to this experience ... the more profitable the orders will be."

When Amazon made its one-day shipping the new standard for all Prime customers last month it sent shares of Walmart and Target tumbling, as investors worried bricks-and-mortar retailers would now have to spend more money to match the e-commerce giant's steps.

"It's this nebulous thing called the Amazon effect," said John Bonno, a managing director in the retail practice at AlixPartners. "I think retailers are so afraid. ... [They're] so nervous that any new service that Amazon offers, retailers feel they need to go through hoops," to match it, he said.

Buy online, pick up at the store

That said, companies like Walmart and Target have something Amazon doesn't have — networks of thousands of stores across the country. Stores help these companies offer a click-and-collect option, where a customer can place an order online, drive to the store, and pick it up that same day. Walmart, for example, says it's on track to offer pickup for online grocery orders at 3,100 stores, and same-day grocery delivery from 1,600 locations, by the end of the year.

"Walmart wants to make the promise they are doing everything they can to be as convenient as possible," said Laura Kennedy, a retail analyst for consulting group Kantar. "They have to meet shoppers' expectations. ... Amazon has set those for the last 10 to 15 years."

Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos (l) and Doug McMillon, CEO of Walmart.

Getty Images | CNBC

A recent report from UBS estimated it would cost Walmart $215 million in incremental investments, based on the company's e-commerce revenues, to match Amazon's one-day shipping offering. UBS added this would be "quite manageable" for Walmart to achieve.

Lore had told analysts during a meeting last fall that Walmart was already capable of reaching 87% of the country with next-day delivery.

Meantime, Amazon is already capable of offering same-day and one-day delivery to 72% of the total U.S. population, according to RBC Capital Markets.

Lore explained the push toward one-day delivery ultimately makes "good business sense" for Walmart. He said this means shoppers will start to receive all of their items in one box — because with next-day delivery, each order is going to be sourced from the nearest distribution center, and only that one.

If a shopper wants a pack of diapers, a Star Wars toy, a coffee mug and a pair of headphones delivered the next day, for example, all of these items will need to be available at one warehouse. If one item isn't available, the shopper will be presented with the option to "save it for later," and order the others for the following day. Or, the shopper can still order everything — likely receiving the shipment in multiple boxes — for two-day delivery, or beyond. (Cut-off times for next-day deliveries will vary by market, Walmart said.)

Walmart has done "extensive work" to make sure it has the right items at the right fulfillment centers, Lore said. The company isn't planning to source next-day shipments from its stores.

Just a fad?

Not everyone is buying into next-day delivery being the next big thing for retailers.

If Walmart finds out this effort isn't profitable, the company will stop offering it, said Sucharita Kodali, a retail analyst at Forrester Research. She compared it to when Amazon started offering overnight delivery on shoes to compete with Zappos.com. Then Amazon bought Zappos. "It was an unsustainable arms race ... and eventually they just stopped," she said.

"Something like next-day delivery is a short-term burst of excitement. It's great for shoppers. ... Customers win when Walmart and Amazon are duking it out. But is it long term?" Kodali asked. "At the macro-economic level, it's not sustainable."

Instead, she thinks more retailers should lean into offering buy-online-pick-up-in-store options, utilizing their real estate and saving on shipping expenses.

A recent survey from Coresight Research found roughly 46% of online shoppers in the U.S. had picked up an internet order from a bricks-and-mortar store in the past 12 months. The top retailers with this option were Walmart, Target, Best Buy and Home Depot, Coresight said.

"Consumers actually like shopping [with click and collect]," Kodali said. Retailers "should've realized this years ago."

Target which offers free, two-day shipping for all of its credit card holders, with no minimum purchase requirement now has a curbside pickup option for shoppers at over 1,250 stores. It offers in-store pickup for online orders at all of its 1,850 locations.

Amazon, still in its race to get boxes to customers as fast as possible, on Monday said it will start giving its current employees up to $10,000 in start-up costs to quit their jobs and form businesses delivering Amazon packages. If accepted into the program, the delivery helpers will be able to lease vans from Amazon. The offer is open to most part- and full-time Amazon employees, the company said, but not to Whole Foods workers.

Amazon shares are up about 21% so far this year, while Walmart shares are up 7%, and Target shares have climbed roughly 8%.

— CNBC's Michael Bloom contributed to this reporting.

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https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/13/walmart-announces-next-day-delivery-firing-back-at-amazon.html

2019-05-14 04:08:16Z
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Senin, 13 Mei 2019

Stock Market Plunge, Bitcoin Up as US-China Trade War Escalates - Bitcoinist

Stocks are sinking and bitcoin is moving higher as the US-China trade war appears to be escalating.


Stocks Slide as Trade War Bites

On Friday, President Trump’s administration raised tariffs on $200 billion worth of annual Chinese imports from 10 to 25 percent. Now, however, the President has said that he’s ready to impose 25 percent on yet another $300 billion worth of Chinese goods.

As such, investors are currently waiting for retaliatory measures from Beijing. China’s Chief Negotiator, Vice Premier Liu He, however, has demanded that in order to strike a trade deal, tariffs on Chinese exports to the US should be lifted.

A Monday op-ed published in the official newspaper of the Central Committee of the Communist Party in China does seem to be a cause for concerns:

China has been pushing forward the bilateral talks with a high sense of responsibility and maximized sincerity, but it will never yield to the extreme pressure from the US, or compromise on matters of principle.

Consequently, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) has dropped by more than 590 points at the time of this writing. Other companies which are sensitive to the matter are also marking decreases. Apple Inc. is down 5 percent on the day, Intel Corp. is down about 2 percent, while Uber has decreased by more than 9 percent.

Bitcoin Sees Yet Another Leg Up

Meanwhile, Bitcoin has marked yet another leg up. Commenting on the matter was Max Keiser, who noted that,

Bitcoin attracts BIG safe haven money as China readies to lower the axe on USD.

After reaching a price point of around $7,500 yesterday, on May 12th, Bitcoin retraced to $7,000, marking a decrease of around 6.6 percent.

This now appears to have been a consolidating pullback as BTC/USD is on the move again.

As seen on the chart, BTC gained upwards of $200 or around 2 percent of its value almost instantly, shrinking the previous retrace substantially.

‘Bull Market is Here’

Monday also saw news of Bitfinex securing $1 billion from private investors in less than a month. This is one of, if not the quickest raise of a billion dollars to date.

“A $1bn IEO raised in less than one month. Bull market is here, buckle-up buckaroos!!” proclaimed BitMEX CEO, Arthur Hayes, whose exchange just traded a record $10 billion in one day.

Bitcoin is up more than 43 percent in the last month alone and almost 100 percent YTD. It also means BTC is outperforming all stocks and commodities including oil and gold thus far in 2019.

Additionally, Hayes is not the only one who holds that the bull market is back. Mike Novogratz, former Goldman Sachs investment banker, and CEO at Galaxy Digital, shared the same position last week.

What do you think of Bitcoin’s price? Don’t hesitate to let us know in the comments below!


Images courtesy of Shutterstock

The Rundown

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https://bitcoinist.com/trade-war-china-us-bitcoin-stocks-down/

2019-05-13 16:01:32Z
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