Dow up around 270 points as disappointing jobs report fuels hopes of a Fed rate cut - MarketWatch

• The U.S. economy created 75,000 new jobs in May, well below 185,000 predicted by economists
• Weakening economic data support argument for a cut in interest rates as soon as this summer
• Major benchmarks on pace for best week since November

U.S. stocks rallied Friday, following a weaker-than-expected jobs report, which supports the case for the Federal Reserve to ease interest rates in the near future, amid fears that the U.S. economy is decelerating as trade tensions between the U.S. and counterparts Mexico and China persist.

How did the benchmarks perform?

The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +1.20%   rose 271 points, or 1.1% , at 25,997, while those for the S&P 500 index SPX, +1.29%   gained 33 points, or 1.2%, at 2,876, and the Nasdaq Composite index COMP, +1.82%   advanced 119 points to 7,734, a gain of 1.6%.

On Thursday, the Dow rose 181.10 points, or 0.7%, at 25,720.66, representing its longest string of gains since March 18, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The S&P meanwhile, rose 17.34 points, or 0.6% to 2,843.49, while the Nasdaq added 40.08 points, or 0.5%, to reach 7,615.55.

For the week, the Dow is set to gain 4.8%, the S&P 500 looks likely to return 4.6%, while the Nasdaq was set for a weekly climb of 3.8%. If these levels hold it would mark the best performance since the week ended Nov. 30, according to FactSet data.

What’s driving the market?

The U.S. economy added 75,000 new jobs in May, while the unemployment rate held steady at 3.6%, the Labor Department said Friday, below the 185,000 estimated by economists, per a MarketWatch poll. Estimated job gains for both March and April were revised down by a total 75,000, and the three-month moving average of monthly job gains has fallen from 245,000 in January to 151,000 today.

The jobs report follows the smallest increase in private-sector employment in nine years, according to payment processor ADP on Wednesday, which showed that the private sector added 27,000 nonfarm jobs in May, representing the weakest growth since March 2010.

While stock index-futures initially sold off on the news, markets could be entering a period in which bad economic news is good for stock markets, analysts said, as it would increase the chances that the Federal Reserve would move to lower interest rates in the coming months.

Wall Street is increasingly anticipating a reduction of borrowing costs by the Federal Reserve to combat sluggish inflation and the aftershocks of intensifying trade wars between the U.S. and counterparts, including Mexico and China. The market is placing a 25% chance of a rate cut at the Fed’s coming policy-setting meeting June 18-19, according to CME Group data.

On the trade front, several newsreports suggested the U.S. and Mexico made progress Thursday on a deal that would have Mexico agree to steps to slow the flow of migrants from Central America to the United States, in return for the U.S. declining to impose tariffs on Mexican imports.

Mexico has also emphasized the need for more U.S. economic aid to potentially subsidize Mexican interdiction efforts, and to support economic development in migrants’ home countries. It remains to be seen, however, whether a deal can be reached in time to avoid the imposition of a 5% tariff on all Mexican imports, set to go into effect Monday. Talks are set to resume Friday.

There is less reason for optimism that the U.S.-China trade dispute will be resolved any time soon, with no new scheduled talks between the two powers. Early Friday, the Governor of the People’s Bank of China told Bloomberg that the central bank has “tremendous” room to use monetary policy to stimulate the Chinese economy, should the Sino-American trade spat worsen.

What other data are ahead?

Wholesale inventories rose 0.8%, the Commerce Department said Friday, above the 0.3% consensus expectation, according to Econoday.

A report on consumer credit growth will be released at 3 p.m.

What are the analysts saying?

“This is the type of [jobs report] the doves will really take to, as it supports the argument for cutting rates beyond politics or trade issues, which were never part of the Fed’s mandate to begin with,” Mike Loewengart, vice president of investment strategy at E-Trade wrote in an email.

“That said, our historically low unemployment rate hasn’t moved, and even though the number came in low we’re still creating jobs, which supports the case that the economy is still expanding,” he added. “So the Fed will have to walk a really thin line.”

“Stock indices were headed for weekly gains, as expectations that the US Federal Reserve and other central banks around the world would soon cut interest rates to counter the damaging impact of rising trade tensions lifted sentiment,” wrote Raffi Boyadjian, senior investment analyst at XM. “Traders were also hopeful that US and Mexican officials will be able to resolve the issue of illegal migration across the two countries’ border.”

Which stocks are in focus?

Barnes & Noble Inc. BKS, +12.16%   shares could be in focus Friday, after the bookseller confirmed it will be acquired hedge fund Elliot Management Corp., for $6.50 per share, in a deal valued at $683 million, including the assumption of debt. The stock rose 10.8% Friday.

Shares of Zoom Video Communications Inc. ZM, +20.89%   were up 21.7% Friday morning, after the firm announced better-than-expected earnings Thursday evening.

How are other markets trading?

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note TMUBMUSD10Y, -2.08%   retreated nearly .03 percentage point to 2.088%.

Asian stocks closed higher Friday, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 rising 0.5% and South Korea’s Kopsi advancing 0.2%. Markets in China were closed for a holiday. In Europe, stocks were on the rise, with the Stoxx Europe 600 SXXP, +0.93%   adding 0.8%.

Crude oil CLN19, +2.21%   was on the rise for the second-straight session, while the price of gold GCN19, +0.37%  edged higher. The U.S. dollar DXY, -0.53% meanwhile, fell 0.4% relative to its peers.

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https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-poised-to-rise-ahead-of-friday-jobs-report-2019-06-07

2019-06-07 15:17:00Z
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The Job Market Isn’t as Strong as It Seemed. The Fed Needs to Pay Attention. - The New York Times

Image

A Mercedes-Benz factory in Vance, Ala.CreditAndrew Caballero-Reynolds/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

As of 8:29 a.m. Friday, things were shaping up for the Federal Reserve to face a real conundrum at its policy meeting in less than two weeks.

Some financial market indicators, mainly in the bond market, were suggesting that the economy was weakening and that the Fed would need to cut interest rates in the coming months to prevent a recession. But there was little evidence of a major slowdown — only a few soft data points here and there.

In particular, the United States labor market has been booming, not at all suggesting an American economy in need of rescue with interest rate policy.

The good news out of the Labor Department’s May employment report released at 8:30 a.m. Friday is that the Fed no longer faces a conundrum. The bad news is that it showed a job market that was not as robust as it had seemed.

It’s not just that the economy added only 75,000 jobs last month, far less than the 180,000 forecast. That might be chalked up to the statistical randomness that can cause the numbers to bounce around in ways that don’t reflect the underlying reality of the economy.

More worrisome is that the report also revised previous months’ numbers down by 75,000, meaning that the blockbuster spring job creation rates were considerably more modest.

It is now clear that there really is softer job creation in 2019 than there was in 2018 — an average of 164,000 jobs a month so far this year, compared with 223,000 last year.

That could reflect the simple math of an economy arriving at full employment. Once nearly everyone who wants a job has one, after all, employers simply can’t create new jobs at the same pace because there is no one out there to fill them.

But some curious pieces of evidence point to underlying weakness. The proportion of prime working-age adults, those 25 to 54, who are working, which rose sharply in 2018, has now leveled off or even edged down. It was 79.9 percent in February, and 79.7 percent in May.

Perhaps most significant, wage growth is also steady or slightly declining, rather than accelerating. Average hourly earnings for private-sector workers rose 0.2 percent in May, and are up 3.1 percent over the last year. Wages rose 3.4 percent in the year ended in February.

If this really were a situation of softening job growth because employers were up against the constraints of full employment, you would expect them to have to pay more to find scarce workers. Instead, the wage growth picture is steady as she goes.

Finally, all of that came before a major escalation of the trade wars that began in early May. The surveys on which the new data are based cover the middle of the month, so there is no reason to think employers would have changed their behavior in response to the latest headlines in time to affect these numbers. The trade war to date has already been damaging for sectors including automobile production and agriculture. And a cycle of higher tariffs on Chinese imports and retaliation against American exports could spread further in months ahead — not to mention a new round of tariffs threatened to go into effect on Mexico next week.

All these numbers don’t add up to a crisis, and there is no reason to assume that a recession is inevitable. But it does amount to the clearest evidence yet that the economic slowdown isn’t a figment of the bond market’s imagination, but something that is happening all around us, even if a few really good jobs reports in a row hid that fact.

The Fed and its chairman, Jerome Powell, will meet June 18-19. They are loath to appear to be responding only to what happens in the financial markets — their job is to try to watch out for the real economy, not treasury bond prices.

They are not in the easiest position. Their main interest rate target is quite low by historical standards, especially in the context of a decade-long expansion. Still, the current federal funds rate of 2.25 to 2.5 percent leaves room to cut rates over the coming quarters to a degree that would cushion the economy.

And the soft May employment numbers offer an opportunity for the Fed to ground a policy pivot on conditions that affect ordinary Americans, not because bond investors expect that they will cut rates.

Both the market and the economic data are now suggesting that the Fed overtightened interest rates in 2018, and that the economy is at risk if it does not correct things. Mr. Powell and his colleagues are on the clock to decide what to do about it.

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https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/07/upshot/the-job-market-isnt-as-strong-as-it-seemed-the-fed-needs-to-pay-attention.html

2019-06-07 14:06:32Z
CBMieGh0dHBzOi8vd3d3Lm55dGltZXMuY29tLzIwMTkvMDYvMDcvdXBzaG90L3RoZS1qb2ItbWFya2V0LWlzbnQtYXMtc3Ryb25nLWFzLWl0LXNlZW1lZC10aGUtZmVkLW5lZWRzLXRvLXBheS1hdHRlbnRpb24uaHRtbNIBfGh0dHBzOi8vd3d3Lm55dGltZXMuY29tLzIwMTkvMDYvMDcvdXBzaG90L3RoZS1qb2ItbWFya2V0LWlzbnQtYXMtc3Ryb25nLWFzLWl0LXNlZW1lZC10aGUtZmVkLW5lZWRzLXRvLXBheS1hdHRlbnRpb24uYW1wLmh0bWw

Walmart will deliver groceries straight to your fridge - CNN

In a new service announced Friday, customers will be able to order groceries online, and then a Walmart worker will drive the food from a nearby store and deliver it to fridges in customers' kitchens or garages. It is Walmart's latest innovation in its grocery business, which makes up more than half of the company's annual sales.

Walmart piloted its new service in New Jersey for five months and is ready to expand. The option will be available to more than a million customers this fall in Kansas City, Pittsburgh and Vero Beach, Florida. Walmart charges a fee for regular grocery delivery orders, and it did not disclose how much customers will have to pay for in-home delivery.

Here's how the service works: Customers can purchase groceries online and select a delivery day. Walmart's employees will wear a camera when they enter customers' homes, allowing shoppers to watch the process live from their phones. Customers won't have to pay for a camera, but they will have to purchase a special door lock. Walmart did not say how much the lock will cost.

Walmart believes it can entice shoppers with another convenient perk as part of its in-home delivery service: Later this year, customers will be able to leave their returns from Walmart's website on their counter and the employee will bring the item back to the store.

In-home grocery delivery is not an entirely new concept for Walmart. (WMT) The company partnered on another grocery delivery option in 2017 with smart-security company August, which makes locks that customers can monitor on their phones. That test included drivers from a crowd-sourced startup to deliver the items to customers. Amazon (AMZN) launched Key in 2017 that allows delivery drivers inside customers' homes when they're not around.

The biggest barrier Walmart will face with its new service is that most people don't want strangers in their homes.

Bart Stein, a Walmart executive who leads the in-home delivery service, acknowledged some customers during the pilot test were initially skeptical of the concept. But he said Walmart had been able to change opinions once customers tried it out.

"We really saw the tables turn after one delivery during our pilot testing around how people would trust a service like that," he said.

One way Walmart is trying to alleviate customer concerns about the service: A biography with three fun facts about their delivery employees.

Walmart workers who've been at the company for at least a year can apply for the in-home delivery position. If they get the job, they will go through training and the role will become their main responsibility.

Walmart US e-commerce chief Marc Lore did not say how many employees will be diverted to these new delivery jobs, but it's another skilled position the retailer has created as new technology emerges. Walmart has also created 30,000 "personal shopper" jobs in stores who select groceries for customers' online pickup and delivery orders.

Walmart's new delivery model comes out of its tech incubator, Store No. 8. The incubator develops companies, such as Jetblack, Walmart's chat-based shopping service in New York City, that help it stay ahead of future shopping trends.

Related: How to solve the world's plastics problem — Bring back the milkman

"We're taking it out of Store 8 and bringing it into the core business," Lore said at a presentation to reporters on Thursday. Lore emphasized that Walmart will be able to use its own store network, grocery supply chain and employees for the service. He argued that combination will help distinguish the offering from competitors.

Walmart has added thousands of grocery pickup locations from stores, same-day home delivery options and introduced voice ordering for groceries off Google Assistant.

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https://www.cnn.com/2019/06/07/business/walmart-in-home-delivery-grocery/index.html

2019-06-07 13:05:00Z
CAIiEBZJzqlBvW-mDb_XOis3MKAqGQgEKhAIACoHCAowocv1CjCSptoCMPrTpgU

U.S. creates just 75,000 jobs in May and wage growth slows in warning sign for economy - MarketWatch

The numbers: The U.S. created just 75,000 new jobs in May and employment gains earlier in the spring were scaled back, an ominous turn that points to a slowing economy and is likely to put more pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.

The meager gains in May fell far short of the 185,000 MarketWatch forecast, but how stocks react Friday will likely depend on whether Wall Street thinks the Fed will act soon.

Premarket trading pointed to a higher opening for the stock market DJIA, +1.29% SPX, +1.35% while the 10-year Treasury yield TMUBMUSD10Y, -2.53% fell to 2.06%.

Hiring slackened off in almost every key segment of the economy and employment fell in retail and government. The pace of wage growth over the past year also slowed.

The news was not all bad. The unemployment rate clung to a 49-year low of 3.6% and a broader measure of joblessness that includes part-time workers dipped to the lowest level in 19 years.

Part of the reason hiring may have tapered off, economists say, is a growing shortage of skilled labor in the tightest labor market in decades. Many companies say they can’t find people to fill a large number of open jobs.

Read: Weak unions, globalization not to blame for shrinking slice of income pie for workers

What happened: Professional-oriented companies added 33,000 jobs, hotels and restaurants boosted payrolls by 26,000 and health-care providers hired 16,000 workers. These have been the three fastest-growing areas of the economy since an expansion began 10 years ago.

Employment was weak everywhere else. Construction companies hired just 4,000 new workers while retailers shed jobs for the fourth straight month.

Government also cut 15,000 jobs, failing to get a boost from temporary Census hiring.

Employment gains for April and March were also reduced by a combined 75,000, revised figures show.

The economy has created an average of 151,000 new jobs in the past three months, down from as high as 238,000 at the start of the year.

The slowdown in hiring and shift toward lower paying jobs in social services and hospitality appears to have put a halt to broad wage gains.

Although the average wage paid to American workers rose 6 cents to $27.83 an hour, the increase over the past 12 months slowed to 3.1% from 3.2%. It peaked at 3.4% earlier this year.

Big picture: The pace of hiring has slowed since the end of last year, and even after the poor May report, the labor market is still healthier than it’s been in several decades.

Still, the economy appears to have been shaken by festering trade tensions with China and a slowdown in the key manufacturing sector. If the labor market or other indicators shows further weakness, the Fed would almost certainly cut interest rates to help shore up the economy.

Read: Economy grew at ‘moderate pace’ in late spring, more upbeat Fed Beige Book finds

What they are saying?: “If the Fed wants evidence the trade dispute has rattled business confidence enough to cause economic problems,” chief economist Chris Low of FTN Financial wrote, weak job gains in May and “fading wage pressures should do the trick.”

“The cracks that had been showing in other data on the economy became very apparent in the May jobs data. Unemployment held steady at 3.6% — still near a half-century low — but job creation stalled,” said Jim Baird, chief investor officer at Plante Moran Financial Advisors.

“Today’s 75,000 jobs number could mark the beginning of the end of the strong jobs expansion, or it could be an outlier. We’ll have to see another couple months of jobs numbers before we can establish hiring is slowing down,” said Robert Frick, corporate economist at Navy Federal Credit Union.

Market reaction: The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 index had risen for three straight sessions after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell indicated an openness to a cut in U.S. interest rates.

Read: Fed’s Bullard says FOMC may have to cut rates soon due to trade wars, low inflation

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https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-creates-just-75000-jobs-in-may-and-wage-growth-slows-in-warning-sign-for-economy-2019-06-07

2019-06-07 13:25:00Z
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Beyond Meat shares surge 27% as analysts predict more robust sales growth ahead - CNBC

Shares of Beyond Meat surged 27% in morning trading Friday after analysts raised their price targets following the company's first quarterly report since going public.

The company's stock, which has a market value of $7.4 billion, is up more than 400% since it went public at the beginning of May.

Credit Suisse analyst Robert Moskow's new price target of $125, up from a previous target of $70 per share, is the closest to the stock's price of $126.30 following its latest surge. Beyond priced its initial public offering at $25 per share.

The company said Thursday that it expects annual revenue to exceed $210 million, more than doubling last year's net sales, but Moskow's estimates put 2019 sales at $224 million.

"Inbound interest from restaurant chains has increased following the tremendously positive publicity during the Beyond Meat IPO," he wrote in a note.

Executives told analysts on the conference call that they only include post-trial distribution to restaurants in the company's forecasts.

J.P. Morgan analyst Ken Goldman estimates that Tim Hortons, which is currently testing a breakfast sandwich made with the Beyond Sausage, could add nearly $23 million in revenue this year. Goldman raised his price target to $120 from $97.

"Importantly, when discussing guidance, CEO Ethan Brown said, 'We're being very conservative' and let investors know that no foodservice customers are included in guidance until they are past the testing stage," Goldman wrote.

Goldman Sachs analyst Adam Samuelson raised his price target to $76 from $67, and Jefferies analyst Kevin Grundy raised his price target to $105 per share from $85.

Beyond Meat reported first-quarter revenue of $40.2 million, up 215% from a year ago, and a net loss of 14 cents per share on a pro forma basis.

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2019-06-07 13:37:51Z
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Google Says Huawei Ban Threatens US National Security by Forcing Chinese Tech Giant to Create Insecure OS: Report - Gizmodo

Huawei’s reception desk at the company’s Cyber Security Lab on April 25, 2019 in Dongguan, near Shenzhen, China

Photo: Getty Images

Google is warning the U.S. government that its ban on Chinese tech giant Huawei actually puts America’s national security at risk by forcing Huawei to produce an insecure operating system that could be exploited by bad actors, both governments and lone hackers alike. That’s the claim in a new report by the Financial Times, providing a peek into the lobbying effort that’s going on behind the scenes as the New Cold War plays out in the world of technology.

Companies like Google, Intel, Broadcom, Qualcomm, and others were abruptly ordered to stop doing business with Huawei last month over concerns that the Chinese telecom company could theoretically provide the Chinese government with ways to spy on American citizens. But Google is reportedly pushing back and arguing that by forcing Huawei to build its own “hybrid” version of the Android operating system it actually makes Huawei smartphones much more vulnerable to attack.

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“Google has been arguing that by stopping it from dealing with Huawei, the US risks creating two kinds of Android operating system: the genuine version and a hybrid one. The hybrid one is likely to have more bugs in it than the Google one, and so could put Huawei phones more at risk of being hacked, not least by China,” an unnamed source with knowledge of the conversations between Google and the U.S. government told the Financial Times.

Huawei is reportedly working on its own operating system since the company will lose access to Google’s official Android OS in less than three months. Huawei will likely create its hybrid OS by using Android’s open source version, at least in part.

From the Financial Times:

In the past few weeks, senior Google executives have approached the commerce department asking either for another extension or to be exempted from the ban altogether, according to those briefed on the conversations. In doing so, it has joined groups representing major US microchip makers such as Qualcomm, who are also worried about the impact the ban will have on their business.

A commerce department official said its Bureau of Industry and Security routinely responded to “inquiries from companies regarding the scope of regulatory requirements”, in order to “ensure private industry compliance” with export controls.

“This is not new to this administration, nor do these discussions influence law enforcement actions,” the person said. “The highest priority of the department and BIS remains the protection of our nation’s security.”

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Google would not confirm or deny the report about its lobbying efforts to Gizmodo but did seem to hint that the Financial Times report was accurate.

“Like other US companies, we’re engaging with the Department of Commerce to ensure we’re in full compliance with its requirements and temporary license,” Google told Gizmodo this morning by email.

“Our focus is protecting the security of Google users on the millions of existing Huawei handsets in the US and around the world.”

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But the Huawei battle isn’t the only problem that Google faces on the American political stage these days. The U.S. Department of Justice is probably opening an antitrust investigation into the company, the House Judiciary Committee is opening its own inquiry, and U.S. politicians like Ted Cruz are even weighing in on the latest controversy over YouTube, which is owned by Google.

Silicon Valley has largely been more protected from political fights in the U.S. than they are in places like Europe simply because Big Tech has home field advantage. Previously, American politicians didn’t want to pursue action against companies like Facebook and Google because they were American companies making a lot of money for Americans. But that’s obviously changed in the world of Trump. The president has even gone after AT&T, calling for a boycott of the company because it owns CNN, which Trump is constantly calling “fake news.”

With top Democratic contenders like Elizabeth Warren calling for a breakup of Big Tech, both sides of the aisle are going after companies like Google in a way that we’ve never seen before. And their home field advantage probably won’t be worth very much anymore as we head into a new decade and the New Cold War shows no signs of slowing down.

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https://gizmodo.com/google-says-huawei-ban-threatens-us-national-security-b-1835319457

2019-06-07 12:02:00Z
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Elliott Management to acquire Barnes & Noble for $683 million - CNBC

Barnes & Noble

Michael Nagle | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Activist firm Elliott Management announced Friday it plans to acquire bookseller Barnes & Noble for roughly $683 million, including debt.

The deal values Barnes & Noble at $6.50 a share, a 43% premium to the retailer's 10-day volume weighted average closing share price before news of an imminent deal leaked Thursday.

After the announcement, the stock was up 10% to $6.56 per share, in premarket trading.

Barnes & Noble has faced continued pressure from Amazon and independent booksellers. Its shares had fallen roughly 25% year to date before the news leak. Within the past five years, Barnes & Noble has lost more than $1 billion in market value.

Amazon holds nearly half of new book sales, a report by audience research Codex Group said last year, while Walmart has about 4.2 percent of the market

In search of a turnaround, Barnes & Noble said last year it was exploring a sale after having received "expressions of interest" from "multiple parties," including its chairman, Leonard Riggio, who founded the company in 1965.

Riggio has entered into a voting agreement in support of the transaction, the company said Friday.

As a private company, Barnes & Noble will likely be more free to make the changes and investment that can be unwieldy under a public spotlight. Part of the bookseller's turnaround plan has included closing some of its more than 600 stores across the U.S. and relocating to smaller spaces that receive a fresh and modern look. The company has said its prototype stores encourage shoppers to buy books online or from a tablet.

The retailer has shown small signs of upturn. In March, it reported that over the holidays, sales at locations open for at least a year during the quarter rose 1.1 percent — its best quarterly performance in three years. As of January, it had $15 million in cash and cash equivalents.

For its part, Elliott, the firm founded and led by billionaire Paul Singer, acquired Britain's biggest bookseller, Waterstones, last year. Owning the two book retailing giants could give Elliott synergies and buying leverage with publishers, people familiar with the industry say.

Elliott will operate the two retailers independently, the company said on Friday, though Waterstones CEO James Daunt will oversee both retailers as chief executive.

The deal, which will be structured as a merger, is expected to close in the third quarter, the company said. Elliott and Barnes & Noble expect to amend the agreement to utilize a tender offer structure, thereby likely reducing closing time by several weeks.

Barnes & Noble also will pay out a quarterly cash dividend of 15 cents per share, payable on Aug. 2.

CNBC's Lauren Thomas contributed to this report

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2019-06-07 11:47:54Z
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