OPEC set for oil cut extension if Iran endorses pact - Investing.com

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: The logo of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is seen inside their headquarters in Vienna

By Rania El Gamal and Ahmad Ghaddar

VIENNA (Reuters) - OPEC and its allies look set to extend oil supply cuts next week at least until the end of 2019 as Iraq joined top producers Saudi Arabia and Russia on Sunday in endorsing a policy aimed at propping up the price of crude amid a weakening global economy.

Iran is the only major OPEC nation yet to have spoken publicly about a need to extend production cuts. Tehran has in the past objected to policies put forward by arch-rival Saudi Arabia, saying Riyadh was too close to Washington.

The United States is not a member of OPEC, nor is it participating in the supply pact. Washington has demanded Riyadh pump more oil to compensate for lower exports from Iran after slapping fresh sanctions on Tehran over its nuclear program.

OPEC and its allies led by Russia have been reducing oil output since 2017 to prevent prices from sliding amid soaring production from the United States, which has become the world's top producer this year ahead of Russia and Saudi Arabia.

Fears about weaker global demand as a result of a U.S.-China trade spat have added to the challenges faced by the 14-nation Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries in recent months.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Saturday he had agreed with Saudi Arabia to extend existing output cuts of 1.2 million barrels per day, or 1.2% of global demand, by six to nine months - until December 2019 or March 2020.

Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said the deal would most likely be extended by nine months and no deeper reductions were needed.

"It’s a rollover and it’s happening,” Falih, whose country is the de facto leader of OPEC, told reporters.

Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy at Dutch bank ING, said OPEC had more to lose by not extending the deal.

"It comes down largely to fiscal breakeven oil prices - the Saudis have a breakeven price of around $85 per barrel, and so they will be concerned about potentially a widening gap between this level and where the market trades," he said.

Benchmark has climbed more than 25% since the start of 2019 to $65 per barrel. But prices could stall as a slowing global economy squeezes demand and U.S. oil floods the market, a Reuters poll of analysts found.

WORSENING GEOPOLITICAL RISK

The output-cutting pact expires on Sunday. OPEC meets in Vienna on Monday followed by talks with Russia and other allies, a grouping known as OPEC+, on Tuesday.

Iraqi Oil Minister Thamer Ghadhban said on Sunday he expected the deal to be extended by six to nine months.

"Iraq’s position is positive, deals with the reality of the challenges of the oil market and supports all (efforts) related to balancing oil supply and demand,” Ghadhban said.

Iraq has overtaken Iran as OPEC's second-largest oil producer and its exports have been rising due to investments by Western majors.

Iran's exports, in contrast, have plummeted to 0.3 million barrels per day in June from as much as 2.5 million bpd in April 2018 due to Washington's fresh sanctions.

The sanctions are putting Iran under unprecedented pressure. Even in 2012, when the European Union joined U.S. sanctions on Tehran, the country's exports stood at around 1 million bpd. Oil represents the lion's share of Iran's budget revenues.

Washington has said it wants to change what it calls a “corrupt” regime in Tehran. Iran has denounced the sanctions as illegal and says the White House is run by “mentally retarded” people.

Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh has not spoken in recent days about the OPEC meeting. He is due in Vienna on Monday.

"Worsening tensions between the U.S. and Iran add potential for oil price volatility that could be tricky for OPEC members to manage," said Ann-Louise Hittle, vice president, macro oils, at consultancy Wood Mackenzie.

"Geopolitical risk means the supply outlook is tightening, offsetting the moderate weakening in oil demand growth thus far this year,” she added.

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2019-06-30 16:40:00Z
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3 Ways Being Single Impacts Your Retirement Planning - The Motley Fool

Planning for retirement is a good way to avoid financial struggles later in life. But retirement planning is very different for single folks than it is for those who are married. If you fall into the former camp, here are a few things you should know.

1. You won't benefit from a spouse's savings

Married couples have an advantage on the retirement savings front in that they get to pool resources once their careers end and benefit from each other's good habits. When you're single, you only have your own savings to rely on, so if you're at all behind in this regard, it's critical that you ramp up while you can.

At present, you can contribute up to $19,000 annually to a 401(k) or $6,000 to an IRA if you're under 50. If you're 50 or older, you can capitalize on a catch-up provision that raises these limits to $25,000 and $7,000, respectively. Even if you can't max out your retirement plan, adjusting your savings rate upward could make a big difference in the long run.

IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.

Imagine you're 57 and want to retire in 10 years. Let's also assume you're sitting on $200,000 in savings and are currently contributing $400 a month to a retirement plan. If your savings generate an average annual 7% return, you'll have $460,000 by the time you retire. But if you're able to sock away $600 a month over the next 10 years instead, you'll get to retire with $493,000, assuming that same return. And that extra $33,000 could easily translate into an additional $100 per month in retirement income over a 30-year period.

2. You'll only have to consider your own needs when filing for Social Security

When you're married, it's important to consider your spouse's needs when filing for Social Security. For example, spousal and survivor benefits are based on eligible recipients' benefits, so those needing to look out for a spouse may have no choice but to delay benefits in order to increase them.

When you're single, however, you only have your personal needs to account for, so you're free to claim Social Security when it suits you. For example, if you've saved nicely in your IRA or 401(k) and want to file for benefits a little early (meaning before full retirement age), you can feel free to do so without having to worry that by reducing your benefits, you're also reducing a spouse's benefits.

Furthermore, when you're single, you can base your Social Security filing decision on your own health. Generally speaking, the better your health going into retirement, the more it pays to delay benefits and boost them in the process, since you're likely to come out with a larger payout in your lifetime. On the other hand, if your health isn't great, filing early generally makes sense. And as a single person approaching retirement, you don't have to factor a spouse's health into that decision.

3. You may have a greater need for long-term care insurance

Married seniors who retire can often fall back on each other to provide care when one gets injured or falls ill. When you're single, you may not have that same built-in caregiver, so your need for long-term care insurance is amplified.

Long-term care insurance can help defray the often-astronomical cost of assisted living or nursing home care, and it can cover in-home care if you need it. The best time to apply for a policy is during your 50s, and the good news is that if you're applying alone, you won't run the risk that a spouse's bad health will drive your premium costs up or, worse yet, put you at risk of seeing your coverage request denied.

Retiring single means getting to call your own shots throughout your golden years. Just be sure to plan appropriately so you're able to enjoy retirement the way you've always wanted to.

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2019-06-30 12:48:00Z
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Central bank plans to create digital currencies receive backing - Financial Times

Global central banks may have to issue their own digital currencies sooner than expected, the general manager of the Bank for International Settlements has said, after Facebook recently unveiled plans to create its own stablecoin.

Agustín Carstens, who heads the BIS, known as the central bankers’ bank, told the Financial Times that the organisation supported the efforts of the world’s central banks in creating digital versions of state currencies.

“Many central banks are working on it; we are working on it, supporting them,” Mr Carstens told the Financial Times. “And it might be that it is sooner than we think that there is a market and we have to create our own digital currencies.

“And it might be that it is sooner than we think that there is a market and we have to provide central bank digital currencies.”

A number of central banks, including Sweden’s Riksbank, are working on their own versions of digital currencies, which would work by offering the public direct access to central bank money. At present, only private sector lenders can borrow directly from monetary authorities.

Central bankers, including Mr Carstens, have been dismissive of the first wave of cryptocurrencies, viewing the likes of bitcoin and ethereum as speculative instruments that cannot be described as money due to the volatility of their value against the most widely used state currencies, such as the US dollar and the euro.

However Facebook’s plans to create Libra — a stablecoin with its value pegged to a basket of as yet unspecified currencies backed by as yet unspecified assets — have attracted attention from officials, including at the Basel-based BIS.

The BIS said in an extract on digital currencies, taken from its annual report, that coins backed by tech giants could “rapidly establish a dominant position” in global finance and pose a potential threat to competition, stability and social welfare.

“The issue is how will the currency be used? Will there be discovery of information, or data that can be used in credit provision and how will data privacy be protected?” Mr Carstens said. “A very simple way to regulate this is to start with anti-money laundering rules. That is a very immediate and very obvious concern.”

However, Mr Carstens acknowledged that developments in the rest of the currency market would influence the extent to which central banks pursued their stablecoin projects.

“There needs to be evidence for demand for central bank digital currencies and it is not clear that the demand is there yet,” he said. “Perhaps people can do what they want by using electronic wallets provided by banks or fintech companies. It depends on the development of payment systems.”

The BIS used its annual report, published on Sunday, to call on governments to take some of the weight off central banks in supporting the economy by unveiling more fiscal policies and structural reforms.

“The effectiveness of very aggressive monetary policy dwindles through time. It will always have some impact, it is effective to combat downturns — but it is not a pillar for higher sustainable growth,” Mr Carstens said. He added that keeping monetary policy ultra-loose for longer created greater financial risks.

A number of central banks that are BIS members — including the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank — are considering launching a fresh round of additional monetary easing to boost flagging confidence in the global economy.

The Fed looks set to cut interest rates and ECB president Mario Draghi has hinted that his governing council could cut rates or restart the expansion of its €2.6tn quantitative easing programme of bond buying in response to investors’ fears that growth is set to slow sharply.

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But Mr Carstens said: “The slowdown is mostly generated by trade tensions. Monetary policy is neither adequate, nor the best policy to counteract this.”

The fears are based on geopolitical uncertainty — primarily over the consequences of US president Donald Trump’s anti-globalisation “America First” policies.

Mr Trump has attacked both Mr Draghi and Fed chair Jay Powell in recent weeks — the former over his desire to loosen monetary policy, the latter for not cutting rates quickly enough.

Mr Carstens said he thought there was still broad public support for central bankers to set monetary policies as they see fit.

“My own very personal view is that there is support in the population for central banks to protect the value of the currency and have the capacity to support growth,” he said.

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2019-06-30 11:53:00Z
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3 Tips for Living Comfortably on Social Security Benefits Alone - The Motley Fool

For a good chunk of American retirees, Social Security benefits are a major source of income. Roughly half of married beneficiaries rely on Social Security for at least 50% of their income according to the Social Security Administration, and around one in five couples depends on their benefits for more than 90% of their retirement income.

Despite the fact that so many people rely on their benefits to make ends meet, not saving anything on your own and expecting Social Security to cover all your retirement expenses isn't the best idea. The average beneficiary only receives around $1,400 per month, and most people will need to pinch pennies to get by on that amount.

That said, sometimes people have no choice but to make the most of Social Security in retirement because they don't have much in savings to fall back on. While it's never too late to start saving, if your savings run dry a few years into retirement, finding ways to live comfortably on Social Security alone may be your best bet. Fortunately, there are a few things you can do to ensure you're living your best life on a tight budget.

Image source: Getty Images

1. Delay claiming benefits to earn bigger checks

Exactly how much you receive in Social Security benefits depends on when you claim them. The only way you'll receive the full amount you're theoretically entitled to is to claim at your full retirement age (FRA), which is 66, 67, or somewhere in between, depending on when you were born. You can claim earlier than your FRA (as early as age 62), but by doing so your benefits will be reduced by up to 30%. On the other side of the coin, if you wait until after your FRA to claim (until age 70), you'll receive extra money on top of the full amount you're entitled to -- up to 32% more, in fact.

Once you start claiming benefits, you can technically change your mind. But you only have a year to do so, and you have to repay the benefits you've already received. Once your decision has been locked in, you're stuck with your benefit amount for the rest of your life (although yearly cost of living adjustments will affect exactly how much you receive). That means if you claim early and receive smaller checks, you'll receive those smaller checks for life. But if you delay benefits to earn those fatter checks, you'll receive more money every month for the rest of your life.

Those bigger checks can go a long way if Social Security is your only source of income in retirement. Even an extra few hundred dollars per month can be the difference between just getting by and being comfortable.

2. Pay off as much debt as possible before you retire

The fewer debt repayments you have to make each month, the more money you have to spend on fun retirement activities. This is especially important if you're going to be living on Social Security alone, since every dollar counts.

If you can't pay off all your debt before retirement, focus first on the debt with the highest interest rates. The longer it takes to pay off high-interest debt, the more your interest payments will snowball over time. Depending on how much debt you have, you may end up paying thousands of dollars in interest alone. Even if you're making more than the minimum payment every month, if the majority of that money goes toward interest, it could take years to pay off your debt completely.

Once your highest-interest debt has been repaid, then tackle the debt with the next-highest interest rate, and so on until you're debt-free.

If you're struggling to pay down debt and save for retirement at the same time, establish your priorities by looking at the type of debt you have and what you're paying in interest. While it's always a good idea to set at least a little money aside for retirement, if you're carrying thousands of dollars in debt and paying, say, 18% in interest per year, putting money in a retirement account earning annual returns of 7% may not do as much good as paying off your debt.

3. Rethink your retirement expectations

You may dream of spending your retirement traveling across the country or lounging on the beach every day. But if you're going to be living on Social Security benefits, you may need to scale back your expectations.

That's not to say you can't live a perfectly enjoyable retirement on a budget. No matter where your interests lie, there are plenty of free and inexpensive activities to enjoy in retirement. You may not be able to travel the world and splurge on expensive hobbies, but that doesn't mean you have to spend retirement stuck at home in front of the TV. Find a cause you care about and start volunteering at a local non-profit organization, write that novel you always said you never had time for, or grab a few friends and explore your city's parks and museums. There are plenty of ways to enjoy retirement without spending a lot of money if you know where to look.

Spending retirement on a tight budget is a great opportunity to stretch your creative muscles and find ways to cut costs without sacrificing your quality of life. For example, when you want to take the occasional vacation, try traveling during the off season when airline tickets and hotel rooms are cheaper. Or if you've always wanted to learn a new hobby, research online to find some free tutorials and practice your skills at home before you sign up for expensive classes.

While living on Social Security benefits alone isn't ideal, if it's your only option you can still make the most of it. By being creative with your retirement lifestyle and making strategic financial decisions, you can still enjoy a comfortable retirement even on a tight budget.

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2019-06-30 10:15:00Z
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China's factory activity shrinks as U.S. tariffs, slowdown hit orders - Investing.com

© Reuters. Workers direct a crane lifting steel pipes for export at a port in Lianyungang, Jiangsu

BEIJING (Reuters) - China's factory activity shrank more than expected in June, an official manufacturing survey showed, highlighting the need for more economic stimulus as U.S. tariffs and weaker domestic demand ramped up pressure on new orders for goods.

The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) stood at 49.4 in June, China's National Bureau of Statistics said on Sunday, unchanged from the previous month and below the 50-point mark that separates growth from contraction on a monthly basis. Analysts polled by Reuters predicted a reading of 49.5.

The weak manufacturing readings are likely to cast a shadow over the apparent progress U.S. and Chinese leaders made at the G20 summit in Japan over the weekend in restarting their troubled talks over tariffs amid a costly trade war.

They will also spark concerns about stalling growth in China and the risk of a global recession, despite slightly better-than-expected export and industrial profits data in May.

Many economists still expect the economy to face strong headwinds in coming months as domestic demand falters and external risks rise.

"Although the outcome of the G20 summit (in Osaka) might boost confidence for some entities, organic growth in the economy is still insufficient, and counter-cyclical stimulus policies need to be maintained," researchers at Huatai Securities wrote in a research note on Sunday.

"The PMI index continued to fall across the board this month, and only the raw material inventory sub-index was up due to weak demand," the research note read.

In June, China's factory output growth slowed, with the subindex falling to 51.3 from 51.7 in May while the contraction in total new orders accelerated to 49.6 from 49.8.

Export orders extended their decline with the sub-index falling to 46.3 from May's 46.5, suggesting a further weakening in global demand.

Import orders also worsened, reflecting softening demand at home despite a flurry of growth-supporting measures rolled out earlier this year.

Southwest Securities said weak new export orders reflected a fading of the front-loading effect, which had temporarily boosted exports as Chinese companies rushed to place orders before more tariffs took effect.

Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping held ice-breaking talks at the G20 summit on Saturday. However, Chinese state media warned on Sunday Beijing and Washington will likely face a long road before the two countries could reach a deal.

Analysts at Nomura expect any gains achieved on a temporary trade deal between China and the United States would prove fleeting with a renewed escalation likely further down the road.

Trump has already imposed tariffs on $250 billion of Chinese goods and is threatening to extend those to another $300 billion, which would effectively cover all of China's exports to the United States. China has retaliated with tariffs on U.S. imports.

To deal with the economic challenges, policymakers have released a range of measures and are expected to launch more. Premier Li Keqiang last week pledged to cut real interest rates on financing for small and micro firms.

Goldman Sachs (NYSE:) said the lack of any substantive progress in Sino-U.S. trade talks at the G20 over the weekend suggested stimulus, including cuts to banks' reserve requirements, was likely to be needed.

"We expect more policy easing (two more reserve requirement ratio cuts in 2H this year, more fiscal measures to support infrastructure investment) to come in the next few months," Goldman Sachs said in a note.

    Manufacturers continued to cut jobs in June, with the employment sub-index falling to 46.9, compared with 47.0 in May, when it hit the lowest level seen since March 2009.

An official business survey showed activity in China's services sector held firm in June despite growing pressure on the broader economy from U.S. trade measures, with the official reading at 54.2 in June from 54.3 in May.

Beijing has been counting on a strong services sector to pick up the slack as it tries to shift the economy away from a dependence on heavy industry and manufacturing exports.

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2019-06-30 08:47:00Z
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Walmart bans woman for eating half a cake, demanding to pay half price, police say - WOWT

WICHITA FALLS, Texas (Gray News) - When police in Wichita Falls get a phone call from Walmart, it’s a pretty safe bet things have gotten weird at the store.

In January, officers responded to the report of a woman driving an electric scooter around the store’s parking lot while drinking wine from a Pringles can.

On Tuesday, another Walmart called to report a woman who refused to pay full price for a cake, according to the Wichita Falls Times Record News.

She reportedly reasoned with the cashier that she was only buying half the cake so she should only pay for half. Store employees said she’d walked around the store eating half of the cake.

By the time officers arrived, she’d agreed to pay full price.

No arrests were made in either case, but the women were banned from the store.

Copyright 2019 Gray Television Group, Inc. All rights reserved.

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2019-06-30 03:17:07Z
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Disgraced Tech CEO Plans Unusual Legal Strategy - Newser

(Newser) – Elizabeth Holmes goes on trial next year on charges of criminal fraud, and Bloomberg reports that her legal team is working on an unexpected legal strategy. They're going after reporter John Carreyrou, whose investigative pieces in the Wall Street Journal led to the unraveling of Holmes' blood-testing company, Theranos. Holmes plans to argue that Carreyrou didn't just report on Theranos, but urged sources to file formal complaints against the company and exerted influence "on the regulatory process in a way that appears to have warped the agencies' focus on the company and possibly biased the agencies' findings against it," according to a court filing obtained by Bloomberg's Josh Rosenblatt.

The legal team is essentially saying that Carreyrou became a part of the story he was reporting on, and swayed regulators to come down harder on the company then they would have otherwise. The Journal, however, stands by Carreyrou's reporting. Meanwhile, a formal federal prosecutor tells Bloomberg the strategy could be dismissed in court as irrelevant—because the case is about Theranos' allegedly bogus biotech claims, not about Carreyrou. The trial is to start in July 2020, with Holmes and former Theranos exec Ramesh "Sunny" Balwani facing up to 20 years in prison and fines of $2 million, per the Journal. They also might have to pay restitution to those who invested in the company. (Read more Elizabeth Holmes stories.)

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2019-06-29 20:17:00Z
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