
https://www.cnn.com/2019/08/05/investing/dow-stock-market-today/index.html
2019-08-05 14:00:00Z
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BEIJING — The trade war between the United States and China may be about to enter a more dangerous phase, one that could saddle the global financial system with new risks at an already turbulent time.
That prospect, which would see Beijing using the value of its currency as a weapon to strike back at the Trump administration, shook world markets on Monday, as nervous investors in Asia and Europe looked for safe places to park their money. Futures markets suggested Wall Street could have a tough opening as well.
The question now is whether Beijing will fully weaponize its currency, allowing it to significantly weaken in value versus the American dollar. That could prompt a harsh response from Trump administration officials who have already warned China against that course.
It could also ripple across the globe, forcing countries that compete with China to consider devaluing their own currencies. That could lead to a zero-sum spiral of devaluations that would damage global growth and lead to even more trade protectionism, threatening the world’s economic integration.
“It’s hugely significant as they are making a clear choice to do this,” said Michael Every, head of financial markets research in Asia for Rabobank, referring to China’s central bank. “This is going to escalate rapidly and badly.”
China’s currency has a way to fall before it would be an effective weapon. But on Monday, Beijing hinted that it might be willing to go there.
The People’s Bank of China, the country’s central bank, allowed its tightly controlled currency, the renminbi, to weaken past a psychologically important point of 7 renminbi to the American dollar for the first time since 2008. The move was widely seen as a signal from Beijing that it would not back down from a fight with Mr. Trump. Just days before, Mr. Trump threatened to impose a new round of tariffs on Chinese imports to force it into striking a deal.
Yi Gang, the central bank’s governor, attributed the move in the renminbi, or RMB, to market forces, adding that many currencies had depreciated against the dollar recently.
“I am confident that the RMB will continue to be a strong currency,” Mr. Yi said in an article published to the social media account of the central bank.
Over all, the renminbi weakened by around 1 percent against the dollar, a move that is not necessarily significant on its own. But the fact that Beijing allowed it to breach a level that was long considered a line in the sand raised questions about whether the Chinese government was doubling down or abandoning any hope for a deal in the near term.
In an unusually blunt statement on Monday, the People’s Bank of China blamed the currency fall on Mr. Trump’s “unilateralism and trade protectionism measures and the imposition of increased tariffs on China.”
The central bank also said it would keep the renminbi “fundamentally stable at a reasonable and balanced level.” But it did not specify what that level would be.
Experts saw the move as a deliberate threat from China’s top leaders, who would most likely have to give permission to the central bank to let its currency fall past such a symbolically fraught level.
“The currency is largely controlled by the P.B.O.C., but the P.B.O.C. does not have the independence to decide on its own the level of the renminbi,” said Michael Pettis, a professor of finance at the Guanghua School of Management at Peking University, referring to the central bank. “This was clearly a decision made higher up.”
The Chinese currency’s fall on Monday reverberated through global markets, sending major indexes in Asia down by about 2 percent or more. European indexes were lower by 1.5 percent or more. Currencies, already trading weaker against the American dollar after the Federal Reserve cut rates for the first time in a decade, fell further.
The escalating trade war already threatens to end what had looked to be a modest global expansion. The American economy appears to be growing at a healthy clip and Europe is showing signs of renewal. But China’s growth has been hit by the trade war, which has compounded some of its homegrown problems. Other countries that depend on China’s voracious economic machine, such as Japan, have been hit as well.
A currency war could intensify that damage.
Countries with weaker currencies can enjoy big advantages when selling their goods somewhere else. It can help them cut prices or be more competitive than rivals in countries with strong currencies. Mr. Trump and a number of American lawmakers have long criticized China for taking that tack with its currency, something Beijing has consistently denied.
If China devalues its currency even more, countries that compete in similar industries, like South Korea or the nations of Southeast Asia, could face pressure to devalue their own currencies. Such devaluation spirals can lead to higher inflation, pinched household spending and disruptive shifts of money across borders. They can also lead to more tariffs or other restrictive trade measures.
A significant devaluation could also hurt China itself. Many of its biggest and most indebted companies in sectors ranging from property to heavy industry have borrowed huge amounts oversees in American dollars. A weaker renminbi makes paying that debt back more expensive. It could also hurt companies that depend on commodities, such as oil, that are priced in dollars, and could spur wealthy Chinese to take their money out of the country.
For those reasons, devaluations make investors nervous. Four years ago, when China devalued its currency by a more drastic amount, a global market rout followed.
This time, the immediate threat is how Mr. Trump may respond.
A devaluation helps to blunt the cost of his tariffs. Mr. Trump’s latest threat of an additional 10 percent on $300 billion of Chinese imports a year would broadly have the same effect as a 1 to 1.5 percent appreciation of the renminbi against the dollar, estimated Professor Pettis of Peking University. To offset those tariffs, the professor added, China could allow its currency to depreciate by a similar level.
That might only lead to Mr. Trump putting more or higher tariffs on Chinese-made goods, which could prompt even more retaliation from Beijing, said Ned Rumpeltin, head of European currency strategy with TD Securities.
“I think that we are in a very much tit-for-tat situation,” he said.

© Reuters.
Investing.com - U.S. futures slumped on Monday as China retaliated against the U.S. by and letting the depreciate.
The yuan slipped below 7 per U.S. dollar for the first time since 2008 at one stage. Even though the People’s Bank of China set the daily midpoint of the currency's trading band at 6.9225 per dollar, the market is so tightly controlled as to give the day's trading range a quasi-official seal of approval.
The moves come only days after U.S. President Donald Trump proposed another 10% tariffs on the remainder of all U.S. imports of Chinese goods, worth about $300 billion. Trump has often accused China of weakening its currency to make exports cheaper and getting an unfair advantage in trade, which Beijing denies.
fell 132 points or 1.7% by 6:41 AM ET (10:41 GMT), while lost 324 points or 1.2% and were down 38 points or 1.3%.
The escalation of the trade war may overshadow the U.S. earnings season, which continues Monday with Tyson Foods (NYSE:), Loews (NYSE:) and others.
Technology stocks were down in premarket trade, with Facebook (NASDAQ:) slumping 2.3%, Tesla (NASDAQ:) down 2.3% and Microsoft (NASDAQ:) falling 1.9%. Apple (NASDAQ:) slipped 2.3%, while Cisco (NASDAQ:) declined 1.2% and Intel (NASDAQ:) lost 1.4%.
JP Morgan Chase (NYSE:) was down 1.8%, while Caterpillar (NYSE:) fell 1.4% and Ford Motor Company (NYSE:) lost 1.5%.
China-focused HSBC Holdings (LON:) (NYSE:) fell 1.9% after its board ousted CEO John Flint, a 30-year veteran at the bank, less than a year-and-a-half after he took over in the top position.
On the economic front, the IHS is released at 9:45 AM ET (13:45 GMT), while the ISM comes out at 10:00 AM ET (14:00 GMT).
In commodities, fell 0.8% to $55.20 a barrel. gained 0.8% to $1,468.75 a troy ounce. It had earlier hit a six-year high of $1,473.05. The , which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, dipped 0.3% to 97.572, as the dollar fell against funding currencies such as the and , but rose against higher-yielders.
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HSBC has announced the surprise departure of CEO John Flint after 18 months in the job, saying the bank needs new leadership.
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HSBC Holdings PLC said Monday that Flint stepped down because "a change is needed" to meet challenges.
The bank’s global commercial banking head, Noel Quinn, will take temporary charge of the CEO role while a search is carried out, HSBC said.
Flint spent almost 30 years at HSBC before being named CEO last year.
A statement by HSBC chairman Mark Tucker said, "the board believes a change is needed to meet the challenges that we face and to capture the very significant opportunities before us."
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The bank said its chief executive of global commercial banking, Noel Quinn, will serve temporarily as CEO while HSBC looks for a permanent replacement.
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HSBC released second-quarter earnings along with the announcement on Flint stepping down, posting $4.37 billion in net profit, up from $4.1 billion in the prior-year quarter, on higher revenue.
The Associated Press contributed to this article.
Warren BuffettKevin Lamarque/Reuters
Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway racked up a record $122 billion in cash by the end of June as it bought more stock than it sold, cut back on share repurchases, and came up short in its search for worthwhile acquisitions.
Buffett, a billionaire investing guru nicknamed the Oracle of Omaha, wasn't tempted by US stocks that surged to all-time highs in late June. Instead, his conglomerate sold $1 billion more of stock than it bought last quarter, marking its largest net sale since the end of 2017, according to Bloomberg. It also bought back $400 million worth of shares, down from $1.7 billion in the first quarter.
Berkshire Hathaway's cash pile has also swelled in the absence of a major acquisition in years.
"We hope to move much of our excess liquidity into businesses that Berkshire will permanently own," Buffett wrote in his latest letter to shareholders. "The immediate prospects for that, however, are not good: Prices are sky-high for businesses possessing decent long-term prospects."
That "disappointing reality" means Berkshire Hathaway will likely spend this year buying shares, he wrote, adding that he remains keen to make an "elephant-sized acquisition."
The stock rally may be pricing Buffett out of some purchases, but it has been positive for Berkshire Hathaway. The value of its equity portfolio jumped 16% to over $200 billion in the first six months of the year. It also realized $1 billion in gains from put options tied to equity indexes in the half. Moreover, higher investment gains pushed its net income up 17% to $14.1 billion last quarter.
Berkshire Hathaway may have just taken a breather.
It build a stake in Apple last year that was worth more than $50 billion at the end of last quarter. It recently raised its holding in Bank of America by 6% to 950 million shares, which are currently worth about $28 billion. Moreover, it has agreed to inject $10 billion in preferred equity in Occidental Petroleum to help finance the oil group's takeover of Anadarko Petroleum.