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Jumat, 01 November 2019

General Motors strike looms over U.S. October job growth - Reuters

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. job growth likely slowed sharply in October, weighed down by a strike at General Motors (GM.N), while the unemployment rate is expected to tick up from near a 50-year low of 3.5%.

FILE PHOTO: A "Help Wanted" sign reads "Not Hiring" in Livonia, Michigan, U.S., October 9, 2019. REUTERS/Brian Snyder

The 40-day strike by members of the United Auto Workers union, which came as hiring was already slowing, could make it difficult to get a clear pulse on the labor market and clues on the health of consumers, the economy’s engine.

The Labor Department’s closely watched monthly employment report on Friday will follow data this week showing a further slowdown in economic growth in the third quarter as a trade tensions-induced slump in business investment deepened.

The Federal Reserve cut interests rates on Wednesday for the third time this year, but signaled a pause in the easing cycle that started in July when it reduced borrowing costs for the first time since 2008.

“There is going to be more noise than signal in this employment report because of the GM strike,” said Ryan Sweet, senior economist at Moody’s Analytics in Westchester, Pennsylvania.

According to a Reuters survey of economists, non-farm payrolls probably increased by only 89,000 jobs in October, with manufacturing shedding at least 50,000 positions, which would be the most since 2009. Employment rose by 136,000 jobs in September.

Government data last Friday showed 46,000 GM employees were idle at the automaker’s plants in Michigan and Kentucky during the period establishments were surveyed for October payrolls.

Striking workers who do not receive a paycheck during the payrolls survey period are treated as unemployed. The strike, which ended last Friday, had an impact on suppliers in the auto industry. That led economists to believe the work stoppage cut between 75,000 and 80,000 jobs from October payrolls.

Even without the strike distortions, job growth has been slowing this year, averaging 161,000 per month compared with an average monthly gain of 223,000 in 2018. The nearly 16-month trade war between the United States and China, which has undermined business investment, has been blamed for the slow job growth.

“We don’t want to ignore the impact the trade fight is having on business job decisions,” said Beth Ann Bovino, chief U.S. economist at S&P Global Ratings in New York.

EYES ON WAGES

The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) employment measure for the manufacturing industry has contracted, likely suggesting manufacturers could be planning workforce reductions. ISM’s services sector employment gauge has also declined.

The GM strike is also seen limiting the rebound in wage gains in October. Average hourly earnings are forecast up 0.3% after being unchanged in September. That would lift the annual increase in wages to 3.0% in October from 2.9% in September. Wage growth peaked at 3.4% in February.

There are fears the business investment malaise could spill over to the labor market, which is underpinning consumer spending. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said he did not see this risk as the labor market remains solid., but not everyone is convinced.

“As it is, some contagion is already evident,” said Bob Schwartz, a senior economist at Oxford Economics in New York. “Small businesses are reporting cutbacks in hiring and investment plans. If this downbeat note reverberates in a meaningful way to households, spurring an upsurge in job insecurity, the last pillar to fall in a recession - consumer spending - would be at risk of crumbling.”

Solid consumer spending blunted some of the drag on the economy from weak business investment to limit the slowdown in growth to a 1.9% annualized rate in the third quarter. The economy grew at a 2.0% pace in the April-June quarter.

Though the household survey from which the unemployment rate is derived likely treated the striking workers as employed, the jobless rate is expected to have increased by one-tenth of a percent point to 3.6% in October. The household survey, which is volatile because of a small sample, showed 1.57 million jobs created in the last five months, far outpacing the payrolls gain reported in the bigger establishment survey.

FILE PHOTO: Striking union auto worker holds a sign on the picket line outside the General Motors Flint Truck Assembly in Flint, Michigan, U.S., October 9, 2019. REUTERS/Brian Snyder

“This discrepancy creates some risk of a sudden reversal in household employment that could lead to a sudden uptick in the unemployment rate, which would be particularly unsettling at a time when markets are focused on recession triggers or risks,” said Michelle Girard, chief economist at NatWest Markets in Stamford, Connecticut.

October’s anticipated strike-driven plunge in manufacturing will follow a drop of 2,000 jobs in September, which was the first fall in factory payrolls in six months. Manufacturing is struggling under the weight of trade tariffs, which the White House has argued are intended to boost the sector.

Construction employment is expected to have risen in October, though hiring has slowed from a peak of 56,000 jobs in January. Further gains are expected in government employment, in part because of hiring for the 2020 Census.

Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Dan Grebler

Our Standards:The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy/general-motors-strike-looms-over-u-s-october-job-growth-idUSKBN1XB35J

2019-11-01 10:14:07Z
CBMidGh0dHBzOi8vd3d3LnJldXRlcnMuY29tL2FydGljbGUvdXMtdXNhLWVjb25vbXkvZ2VuZXJhbC1tb3RvcnMtc3RyaWtlLWxvb21zLW92ZXItdS1zLW9jdG9iZXItam9iLWdyb3d0aC1pZFVTS0JOMVhCMzVK0gE0aHR0cHM6Ly9tb2JpbGUucmV1dGVycy5jb20vYXJ0aWNsZS9hbXAvaWRVU0tCTjFYQjM1Sg

General Motors strike looms over U.S. October job growth - Reuters

FILE PHOTO: A "Help Wanted" sign reads "Not Hiring" in Livonia, Michigan, U.S., October 9, 2019. REUTERS/Brian Snyder

“There is going to be more noise than signal in this employment report because of the GM strike,” said Ryan Sweet, senior economist at Moody’s Analytics in Westchester, Pennsylvania.

Government data last Friday showed 46,000 GM employees were idle at the automaker’s plants in Michigan and Kentucky during the period establishments were surveyed for October payrolls.

“We don’t want to ignore the impact the trade fight is having on business job decisions,” said Beth Ann Bovino, chief U.S. economist at S&P Global Ratings in New York.

EYES ON WAGES

FILE PHOTO: Striking union auto worker holds a sign on the picket line outside the General Motors Flint Truck Assembly in Flint, Michigan, U.S., October 9, 2019. REUTERS/Brian Snyder

Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Dan Grebler

Our Standards:The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy/general-motors-strike-looms-over-u-s-october-job-growth-idUSKBN1XB35J

2019-11-01 09:20:54Z
CBMidGh0dHBzOi8vd3d3LnJldXRlcnMuY29tL2FydGljbGUvdXMtdXNhLWVjb25vbXkvZ2VuZXJhbC1tb3RvcnMtc3RyaWtlLWxvb21zLW92ZXItdS1zLW9jdG9iZXItam9iLWdyb3d0aC1pZFVTS0JOMVhCMzVK0gE0aHR0cHM6Ly9tb2JpbGUucmV1dGVycy5jb20vYXJ0aWNsZS9hbXAvaWRVU0tCTjFYQjM1Sg

Asian markets cautiously rise amid fresh trade-deal doubts - MarketWatch

Asian markets mostly gained in cautious trading Friday amid fresh doubts about the likelihood of a U.S.-China trade deal.

Bloomberg News reported Thursday that Chinese officials were expressing doubts about the chances of a comprehensive trade deal even if a “phase one” partial deal is signed. President Donald Trump, meanwhile, said the U.S. and China were looking for a new site to sign the “phase one” deal in November, since the upcoming Asia-Pacific summit in Chile was canceled.

U.S. stocks closed lower Thursday on the trade-deal concerns, more evidence of a slowdown in manufacturing and mixed corporate earnings.

Japan’s Nikkei NIK, -0.33% fell 0.4% while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index HSI, +0.72% rose 0.5%. The Shanghai Composite SHCOMP, +0.99% gained 0.7% and the smaller-cap Shenzhen Composite 399106, +1.29% advanced 0.9% after a private gauge found Chinese factory activity expanded in October for the third straight month. South Korea’s Kospi 180721, +0.80% rose 0.4% while benchmark indexes in Taiwan Y9999, +0.36% , Singapore STI, -0.14% , Malaysia FBMKLCI, -0.47% and Indonesia JAKIDX, -0.44% were mixed. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 XJO, +0.09% was up 0.1%.

Among individual stocks, Nintendo 7974, +7.46% surged in Tokyo trading after the videogame company reported strong quarterly sales of its Switch Lite handheld console. Rakuten 4755, -1.35% and oil producer Inpex 1605, -2.52% fell. In Hong Kong, Sunny 2382, +2.05% property developer Country Garden 2007, +2.01% and Ping An Insurance 2318, +1.10% gained. Chip maker SK Hynix 000660, +1.34% advanced in South Korea while Foxconn 2354, +3.22% jumped in Taiwan. Beach Energy BPT, +2.62% gained in Australia while ANZ Banking ANZ, -2.06% fell.

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https://www.marketwatch.com/story/asian-markets-cautiously-rise-amid-fresh-trade-deal-doubts-2019-10-31

2019-11-01 04:54:00Z
52780424358230

Kamis, 31 Oktober 2019

Varcoe: Encana's founding CEO laments company's 'disturbing' southward shift - Calgary Herald

Gwyn Morgan, the founding CEO of Encana, says the company's '"centre of gravity" has been shifting for years. Peter J. Thompson / PST

It should not come as a shock that Encana Corp. is uprooting its corporate flag and moving its headquarters to the United States.

It certainly didn’t catch Gwyn Morgan off guard.

The founding CEO of the major Calgary-based petroleum producer, who retired in 2005, noted Encana’s “centre of gravity” has been shifting for years.

When the company placed more focus on U.S. growth, or when current CEO Doug Suttles began working out of the company’s offices in Denver, or Encana said it was adopting a “headquarter-less model,” or made a US$7.7-billion purchase of Texas-based Newfield Exploration a year ago, the signs all pointed in the same direction.

Southbound.

However, for a city, province and industry struggling from a prolonged downturn, the news still stings.

“It’s sort of the step that all of us hoped wouldn’t happen, especially the employees and the guy who founded the company. But it is disturbing and not surprising,” Morgan said Thursday in an interview.

“But there is a sense of loss anyway because it’s hard to come from being a proud Canadian-headquartered company, with a mission, to be sort of a branch office.”

Encana announced early Thursday it was changing its name to Ovintiv Inc., and intends to establish its corporate domicile in the United States, pending approval by stock exchanges, courts, as well as shareholders, next year.

The company said the shift should help it attract larger pools of investment. Encana pointed out its main American competitors have 20 per cent more index and passive ownership than it does being a Canadian-based firm.

Suttles insists the change won’t affect jobs or capital allocation in Canada, although it’s hard to see how this isn’t another step in a slow-motion shuffle southward.

“We don’t want people to see this as some negative reflection on Canada,” he told BNN Bloomberg television.

How else should people read it?

Yes, the company still has a big presence in the Bow building and excellent assets in the Montney and Duvernay formations.

It still has 40 per cent of its workforce, about 1,100 people, in Canada. This is nothing to sneeze at.

“Make no mistake, we have a long and proud history in Canada, and our assets here are world-class,” Suttles told analysts on a conference call. “How we operate the business and run the business will not change.”

However, the decision to change its name and shift its corporate base to the U.S. speaks volumes about where its future lies, underscoring the challenges facing the country’s energy sector as investment, equipment and people head elsewhere.

A number of other internationally-based companies have retreated from the country after oil prices tanked and the industry began a painful restructuring.

“This is a tragedy for Canada,” said Alex Pourbaix, CEO of Cenovus Energy, the Calgary-based oilsands producer that was spun out of Encana in 2009.

“There’s a more fundamental issue going on, and that is over the past five or six years, we have generally seen an exodus of investment, both by international companies and, frankly, by Canadian companies.”

While local jobs may not be lost, Morgan said it is significant when the top decision-makers aren’t in the country.

A native of Carstairs, Morgan recalls when he first started in the industry in the 1970s, there were few large Calgary-headquartered operators. Most of the key decisions were made elsewhere.

Encana was created following the blockbuster announcement in January 2002 that Alberta Energy Co. and PanCanadian Energy Corp. would merge in a $27-billion union. The company’s name even fused the words “energy” with Canada to promote its brand.

By the time Morgan retired last decade, Encana was the largest company in Canada by market capitalization, ahead of the country’s big banks.

“It was a fulfilment of what I called my lifelong ambition to create a great Canadian-headquartered company that wouldn’t go, that would never be taken over, and move to somewhere else,” he added.

“But I never expected that the company would end up, if I can put it this way, exporting itself to the U.S.”

Now, some people will say Thursday’s decision isn’t significant, the company isn’t relocating jobs, it’s still drilling and producing large volumes in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin, and the country remains part of its future.

Let’s hope time proves them right.

However, Morgan isn’t convinced the changes are minor, noting a head office means more than just a place to call home. It means having corporate positions centralized in the city, spending money in the local economy, remaining active in local sponsorships and charitable work, and having a sharper focus on its home turf.

“There’s just a big difference overall when the decisions are being made somewhere else about the business sector in your country,” he said.

You also don’t have to look very far to see the constant challenges the Canadian oilpatch faces.

On the same day as Encana unveiled its new name and is moving its base to the U.S., the Alberta government announced it’s modifying its oil curtailment program, allowing companies with extra crude-by-rail capacity to produce more than their provincial quotas.

This should allow some growth to return to the sector. Yet, it wouldn’t be necessary to tinker with quotas if we had sufficient pipeline capacity in the first place.

Meanwhile, the Petroleum Services Association of Canada released a new forecast that only 4,500 oil and gas wells will be drilled in the country next year, a 10 per cent drop from this year’s already-low levels.

Changes to curtailment, less drilling and a high-profile company shifting its corporate base into the U.S. aren’t the problem, they’re the symptoms.

An inability to build pipelines, changing investment patterns, weak commodity prices, the push toward decarbonization and federal regulatory obstacles all signal that growth prospects are limited in Canada, at least for the time being.

And this is what the Encana announcement represents, a steady retreat, a drumbeat of negative news, and a longing for the times when industry was focused on building world-class operators within Canada, not watching them head south.

Chris Varcoe is a Calgary Herald columnist.

cvarcoe@postmedia.com

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November 01, 2019 at 07:02AM

SeaBus service first to be affected by transit strike: Union - Vancouver Sun

Talks between the union and Coast Mountain Bus Company broke off Thursday afternoon with no deal reached.

When Metro Vancouver transit workers go on strike Friday, the first thing commuters will notice is that SeaBus service will likely be cut back by one boat for the afternoon rush.

Contract talks between Coast Mountain Bus Company (CMBC) and Unifor, the union that represents about 5,000 bus operators, maintenance workers and SeaBus employees broke off Thursday.

Earlier in the week, the union announced that if a tentative deal wasn’t reached by 8 a.m. on Friday, strike action would begin with a ban on uniforms by transit operators, and the company’s technicians and skilled-trades workers refusing to work overtime.

“The greatest impact will be at SeaBus,” said Mike Smith, president of Unifor Local 2200, which represents bus maintenance staff and SeaBus workers. “Probably right off the bat we’ll probably be down a boat. They do not have the people to run the boats.”

SeaBus provides service between Downtown Vancouver and the North Shore, and this summer TransLink added a third vessel, which had been used as a spare, into the rotation to provide more service during peak periods. Smith said the morning rush hour will look the same, but by the afternoon that third boat will be gone because every boat must have an engineer on board, and engineers work OT every day because there is a shortage of skilled workers.

“There is no contingency plan for that either,” Smith said.

The SeaBus likely will be affected first by the transit strike. Arlen Redekop / PNG

That means the SeaBus will be back to 15-minute intervals instead of 10 minutes, and people will be waiting to get on a crowded boat.

“There’s a lot more people riding that boat than there ever has been,” Smith said. “They’re going to get home — it’ll just be a lot longer.”

Smith said the overtime ban for maintenance workers won’t be noticed right away, but it will gradually increase pressure on the system. Mechanics work “sporadic overtime” to catch up on overdue work, like fixing buses that have broken down or conducting mandated vehicle inspections that have backed up, and without OT there will be fewer buses available.

“The buses will be slower impact — not smaller but slower,” Smith said. “The longer this goes on, the less buses will be on the road because it will back up; the maintenance will back up.”

TransLink spokesperson Jillian Drews said it’s not possible to tell customers which routes and runs will be cancelled.

“Reduced maintenance will shrink the fleet size. It’s fair to say there will be service reduction,” said Drews in an email.

Unifor national president Jerry Dias said the goal is a fair contract that ensures members are working under safe and reasonable conditions.

“To minimize the disruption to the public while still ramping up pressure on the employer, we have chosen a measured level of strike action in the first phase,” he said in a statement.

Gavin McGarrigle, Unifor’s western regional director, said Wednesday the union is asking for measures that would reduce overcrowding, service increases and more reasonable break times for its members. Passengers are packing onto buses “like sardines” or can’t board buses because they’re too crowded, while the tense environments mean drivers are more likely to be subjected to violent outbursts like one recorded on video this week of a passenger kicking a door, then spitting on a driver, he said.

Drivers complain that they often don’t get breaks from driving because increasing traffic congestion makes it hard to stay on schedule.

Coast Mountain said Thursday that it’s “negotiating in good faith” and has made fair and reasonable offers. In a prepared statement the company said if the union proceeds with job action, it will only punish transit users in Metro Vancouver.

“Without maintenance overtime, we will see bus and SeaBus service cancellations affecting customers,” said CMBC president Michael McDaniel.

He said the company has been bargaining with the union since Aug. 1 but the union has refused to participate in third-party mediation.

“CMBC is now back at the table and our current offer includes significantly better wages and benefits, and addresses working conditions,” said McDaniel. “This package would be greater than most other public sector settlements in B.C. I urge the union to hold off on job action until a deal is done.”

The company said many services will not be affected by the strike, including SkyTrain, West Coast Express, HandyDart, the West Vancouver Blue Bus and other contracted services.

If it comes to a full shutdown, like the one that happened in 2001, experts say the labour dispute could have significant consequences for an urban area that relies heavily on transit.

“If we do have a serious disruption that lasts an extended period, it’s going to set back the progress that has happened to shift people to more sustainable urban mobility options here in Vancouver,” said Anthony Perl, professor of urban studies and political science at Simon Fraser University.

Public transit plays an increasingly important role in the regional transportation network as the population grows and the space for new roads and infrastructure doesn’t, he said.

Ridership reached an all-time high in 2018. The number of boardings increased more than seven per cent across the system, representing the largest ever annual increase in transit use.

Buses are the most widely used transit service in the region, with an average of 20 million boardings per month, or 262 million boardings last year. Almost two-thirds of all transit journeys are by bus, and almost three-quarters of transit journeys include a bus connection. Bus ridership grew by eight per cent last year.

Mayor Mike Little of the District of North Vancouver said he and other regional mayors have been pushing for increased transit funding: “People are becoming more comfortable with relying upon the service but it’s really, really stressed.”

• Transit users are being advised to sign up for transit alerts at translink.ca and to follow @TransLink on Twitter.

— With files from David Carrigg and The Canadian Press

jensaltman@postmedia.com

ticrawford@postmedia.com

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November 01, 2019 at 07:33AM

Keystone pipeline shut after spilling over 1 million litres of oil in North Dakota - CBC.ca

An estimated 1.4 million litres of oil have spilled from TC Energy Corp.'s Keystone crude pipeline in North Dakota, state authorities said on Thursday, a major leak at a time of increased regulatory scrutiny of oil pipeline expansions.

The cause of the rupture has not yet been disclosed. But the initial estimate makes it one of the biggest onshore crude spills in the past decade and the largest for Keystone, according to U.S. Pipeline Hazardous Materials and Safety Administration (PHMSA) data.

Pipeline operator Calgary-based TC Energy has been seeking to expand its pipelines linking Western Canadian oil fields to U.S. refineries with its proposed Keystone XL project. The $6 billion US ($7.8 billion Cdn) project has faced regulatory and environmental hurdles despite backing by U.S. President Donald Trump.

A nearly 10-year legal fight between TC Energy, formerly called TransCanada, and environmental activists has delayed development of the line that would run from Alberta to the U.S. Gulf Coast. A Nebraska court in August affirmed an alternative route through the state, raising hopes the project might proceed and provide badly needed transport for Alberta's crude.

On Wednesday, TC Energy said its 93.8 million litre-per-day (lpd) Keystone pipeline system to the United States was shut after a drop in pressure was detected. It said there were no injuries and it was investigating the cause of the breach near Edinburg, N.D.

The company has not said when pipeline operations would restart, but told shippers that service to U.S. Midwest refiners would remain shut during the outage. The line could remain shut for at least a week, according to market sources on Thursday.

TC Energy has begun using backhoes and vacuum trucks to recover the spilled oil, said Brent Nelson, an emergency response manager for Walsh County who visited the site.

"At this time I would estimate 50 to 75 persons onsite working between two shifts.... They are focusing on oil recovery at this time and will then move to making repairs," he said.

The exact amount of oil released will not be available until recovery has been completed, TC Energy said in a statement on Thursday.

In 2017, a Keystone crude pipeline leak in rural South Dakota spilled nearly 1.04 million litres, PHMSA data showed. Earlier this year, Keystone was partially shut after leaking 6,800 litres of crude in Missouri.

The latest release also affected a wetland area, a statement from the North Dakota Department of Environmental Quality said.

"It [Keystone] went in during the 1990s. They've had a few spills ... more than you would hope to have on a line that's still fairly new," said Carl Weimer, executive director of the Pipeline Safety Trust in Bellingham, Wash., a non-profit promoting pipeline safety.

Keystone has leaked substantially more oil, and more often, in the U.S. than the company indicated to regulators in risk assessments before operations began in 2010, according to a Reuters review in 2017.

Marketlink pipeline disrupted

The Keystone outage also disrupted flows on the Marketlink pipeline, which has a capacity to flow 119 million lpd and is connected to Keystone, roiling oil prices at the delivery point for U.S. crude futures.

On Wednesday, TC Energy said on its website that the Marketlink system was not affected by the Keystone outage, which was shut from Hardisty, Alta., to Cushing, Ohio and to Wood River-Patoka, Ill.

By Thursday, sources said the rates on the Marketlink were reduced, with one source saying the line was operating at about 30 million lpd.

However, market intelligence firm Genscape said on Thursday afternoon that Marketlink shut from reduced rates at approximately 47 million lpd earlier in the day.

"[This incident] underscores the structural issue plaguing the Canadian oil industry," said Michael Tran, managing director of global energy strategy at RBC Capital Markets.

"While it is too soon to draw comparisons to last year's historic pricing disconnect, the stranded barrels may raise similar fears if the outage proves longer than historical precedents," Tran said.

TC Energy said in a statement it would focus on cleaning up the spill and preparing to make Keystone pipeline repairs.

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November 01, 2019 at 05:47AM

BC Ferries passengers handed travel bans after spate of abusive incidents - CityNews Vancouver

VICTORIA (NEWS 1130) — In the last two weeks, customers have been banned from BC Ferries for abusive behaviour targeting employees–one for driving a car toward a worker, one for threatening to use a weapon, and one for an alleged sexual assault.

The passengers involved have all been issued one-year travel bans and the incidents have all been reported to the police, according to Mark Collins, President and CEO.

“Under federal law BC Ferries is entitled to deny travel in circumstances like this and that’s what we’ve done,” he says.

On Oct. 15 at the Langdale terminal, a customer was banned after being arrested.

“The customer pulled his car out of the designated lane and drove aggressively at one of our employees. Our employee had to jump out of the way to protect themselves.”

Two days later, at Horseshoe Bay an upset customer threatened to come back to the terminal with a gun after a dispute with a worker. The incident was reported to police and that customer was similarly banned.

On Oct. 22 a man was arrested at the Tsawwassen terminal after an employee reported a sexual assault.

Collins says bans can also be imposed on customers whose behaviour doesn’t rise to the level of a criminal offence, saying verbal harassment will not be tolerated.

“This is one of the primary enforcement methods that BC Ferries has to ensure that passengers treat our employees with respect.”

Collins says the vast majority of the 23 million people who board ferries each year behave themselves, estimating 150 travel bans are issued annually.

“In the scale of how many people we’re handling, it’s not a huge number but it’s very important that our employees have a safe and respectful environment and so when these happens we take it seriously.”

He explains that a wave of these incidents is not uncommon, especially during busy weekends when sailings are delayed and tempers are frayed.

“Approach our staff in a respectful manner and we will do everything that we can to ensure that you have a good travel experience. In return, our expectation is that BC Ferries workers have a safe and respectful work environment.”

With files from Ria Renouf and Marcella Bernardo

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November 01, 2019 at 06:31AM