Irrational exuberance? Why last year’s stellar returns may have been a reversal of ‘excessive pessimism’ - MarketWatch

On the first working day of 2020, let’s take a moment to appreciate the virtues of a vice: laziness.

Say what you will about new year’s resolutions, but last year, letting a boring old S&P 500-tracking index fund do its work was one of the best investment decisions around.

Including dividend reinvestment, the S&P 500 SPX, +0.29%  returned 33% in 2019, outperforming virtually every national index and very nearly every investment strategy.

For the decade, according to Deutsche Bank, the S&P 500 returned a cool 256%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite COMP, +0.30%  returned 347%.

So the obvious question is, can the gains continue?

Tim Duy, a University of Oregon professor who closely tracks the Federal Reserve, plotted the return of the S&P 500 on a logarithmic scale to show that the current gains are nothing like the acceleration from the late 1990s.

“This doesn’t surprise me as I think fears of financial excess are overplayed, effectively a case of fighting the last war,” he writes. Duy also notes the level shift down since the 2007-09 recession, which he says is suggestive that a less optimistic view of the world, has already been priced into the market.

Duy also examined S&P 500 performance after the first Fed rate increase of the cycle, and finds the current performance in line with the pre-2015 average. Duy says the current performance is not “an unexplainable deviation from fundamentals” but rather an expected recovery from excessive pessimism.

The buzz

There was little new information for traders to chew on, besides the People’s Bank of China deciding to cut bank reserve requirements to help shore up the world’s second-largest economy.

Data released Thursday showed Initial jobless claims fell 2,000 from an upwardly revised 224,000, showing layoffs are still rare.

While not market moving, the saga of Carlos Ghosn is still getting attention, as details of how the former Nissan and Renault executive left Japan for Lebanon still remain murky, and possibly could involve being smuggled in a musical instrument case. Turkey has detained seven individuals in connection with Ghosn’s brief travel through Istanbul.

The markets

U.S. stock futures were pointing to a strong start on Thursday, with futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average YM00, +0.58%  gaining 164 points. See Market Snapshot.

European SXXP, +1.01% and Asian stocks ADOW, +0.26%  also rose.

In currency markets, the British pound GBPUSD, -0.5509% sagged while most of the other major pairs saw little movement.

Random reads

New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio says Domino’s Pizza DPZ, +0.18%  exploited those who celebrated the new year in Times Square by charging $30 for pizza.

Also on the pizza front, ‘Papa’ John Schnatter vows to eat 50 pizzas in 30 days.

A New York state assemblyman who tweeted there was no excuse for driving impaired was arrested days later for, yes, driving impaired.

In the U.K., cassette sales reached a 15-year high last year.

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2020-01-02 12:53:00Z
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Japan tries to solve the mystery of Carlos Ghosn's audacious escape - CNN

Japanese media reported that Tokyo district prosecutors entered the property on Thursday. CNN affiliate TV Asahi also reported that prosecutors were working with police to access CCTV video around his home as part of their investigation.

Ghosn — the former chairman of Nissan and Mitsubishi Motors, and former chairman and CEO of their alliance partner, Renault — had been awaiting trial in Japan on charges of financial wrongdoing, including allegations that he understated his income for years and funneled $5 million of Nissan's money to a car dealership he controlled. He was ousted from his posts at Nissan (NSANF) and Mitsubishi Motors following his arrest in November 2018, and later resigned from Renault (RNLSY).

As a condition of being released on bail, Ghosn was required to stay in Japan. But his case was completely upended earlier this week after Ghosn revealed that he had fled Japan for Lebanon to escape what he called a "rigged" justice system.

It is still not clear how Ghosn, who is a citizen of France, Brazil and Lebanon, was able to slip out of Japan. Reuters and the Financial Times have reported that he was smuggled out of Tokyo by a private security company -— a plot that the media organizations say took months to concoct.

The governor of Istanbul said in a statement Thursday that Turkish police have detained seven people in connection with an investigation into Ghosn's "illegal escape" from Japan. Anadolu news agency said that Ghosn traveled via the city's Ataturk airport. Police detained four pilots of a private airline, a company manager and two ground staff at the request of the Istanbul prosecutor, according to the statement from the governor's office.

Flight tracker Flightradar24 showed a private jet flying from Osaka, Japan, to Istanbul and then another continuing to Lebanon at the time Ghosn is said to have arrived in the country.

CNN Business has been unable to verify the circumstances behind his departure, and Ghosn did not elaborate on his escape in his public statement earlier this week.

Japan's justice ministry, the Tokyo prosecutor's office and the city's district court have not responded to requests from CNN Business this week for comment about Ghosn's escape. Government offices are closed this week for the New Year holiday.

Legal experts and political analysts say that Japan is probably trying to figure out whether Ghosn violated immigration law when he left the country — not that there's much of a chance of forcing him to return.

Prosecutors in Tokyo are now likely retracing Ghosn's moves through Japan, collecting surveillance footage and searching for potential collaborators said Nobuo Gohara, a former prosecutor who now runs a compliance and law office in Japan.

Gohara added that Ghosn's trial is almost certainly now canceled. The bigger question, he said, is how Japanese authorities will respond to Ghosn's attacks on them, now that he is able to speak freely about his detention.

Ghosn has repeatedly denied the charges against him, and claimed that his arrest was part of a plot to remove him from the automotive empire he built. In his statement this week, he said he would "no longer be held hostage by a rigged Japanese justice system where guilt is presumed, discrimination is rampant, and basic human rights are denied."

Japan can't force Lebanon to send Ghosn back, said Keith Henry, the founder and representative director of Asia Strategy, a research and policy firm based in Tokyo. The two countries have no extradition agreement.

"It is a bigger deal for [Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo] Abe and Japan than for Ghosn," Henry said. "No matter what they do now, it is very difficult to overcome the embarrassment of letting go one of the most high-profile suspects" of corporate scandal since Japan's economic boom that followed World War II.

— CNN's Isil Sariyuce in Istanbul contributed to this article.

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2020-01-02 12:34:00Z
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Japan tries to solve the mystery of Carlos Ghosn's audacious escape - CNN

Japanese media reported that Tokyo district prosecutors entered the property on Thursday. CNN affiliate TV Asahi also reported that prosecutors were working with police to access CCTV video around his home as part of their investigation.

Ghosn — the former chairman of Nissan and Mitsubishi Motors, and former chairman and CEO of their alliance partner, Renault — had been awaiting trial in Japan on charges of financial wrongdoing, including allegations that he understated his income for years and funneled $5 million of Nissan's money to a car dealership he controlled. He was ousted from his posts at Nissan (NSANF) and Mitsubishi Motors following his arrest in November 2018, and later resigned from Renault (RNLSY).

As a condition of being released on bail, Ghosn was required to stay in Japan. But his case was completely upended earlier this week after Ghosn revealed that he had fled Japan for Lebanon to escape what he called a "rigged" justice system.

It is still not clear how Ghosn, who is a citizen of France, Brazil and Lebanon, was able to slip out of Japan. Reuters and the Financial Times have reported that he was smuggled out of Tokyo by a private security company -— a plot that the media organizations say took months to concoct.

Turkish state media reported Thursday that seven people have been detained in Istanbul on suspicion of helping Ghosn flee to Lebanon. Anadolu news agency said that Ghosn traveled via the city's Ataturk airport, where police detained four pilots of a private airline, two ground staff and the director of a cargo company. Flight tracker Flightradar24 showed a private jet flying from Osaka, Japan, to Istanbul and then another continuing to Lebanon at the time Ghosn is said to have arrived in the country.

CNN Business has been unable to verify the circumstances behind his departure, and Ghosn did not elaborate on his escape in his public statement earlier this week.

Japan's justice ministry, the Tokyo prosecutor's office and the city's district court have not responded to requests from CNN Business this week for comment about Ghosn's escape. Government offices are closed this week for the New Year holiday.

Legal experts and political analysts say that Japan is probably trying to figure out whether Ghosn violated immigration law when he left the country — not that there's much of a chance of forcing him to return.

Prosecutors in Tokyo are now likely retracing Ghosn's moves through Japan, collecting surveillance footage and searching for potential collaborators said Nobuo Gohara, a former prosecutor who now runs a compliance and law office in Japan.

Gohara added that Ghosn's trial is almost certainly now canceled. The bigger question, he said, is how Japanese authorities will respond to Ghosn's attacks on them, now that he is able to speak freely about his detention.

Ghosn has repeatedly denied the charges against him, and claimed that his arrest was part of a plot to remove him from the automotive empire he built. In his statement this week, he said he would "no longer be held hostage by a rigged Japanese justice system where guilt is presumed, discrimination is rampant, and basic human rights are denied."

Japan can't force Lebanon to send Ghosn back, said Keith Henry, the founder and representative director of Asia Strategy, a research and policy firm based in Tokyo. The two countries have no extradition agreement.

"It is a bigger deal for [Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo] Abe and Japan than for Ghosn," Henry said. "No matter what they do now, it is very difficult to overcome the embarrassment of letting go one of the most high-profile suspects" of corporate scandal since Japan's economic boom that followed World War II.

— CNN's Isil Sariyuce in Istanbul contributed to this article.

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2020-01-02 10:29:00Z
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Ex-Nissan boss Carlos Ghosn reportedly carried spare French passport while on bail in Japan - CNBC

Nissan's former chairman Carlos Ghosn.

Marlene Awaad | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Japanese authorities allowed ousted Nissan boss Carlos Ghosn to carry a spare French passport in a locked case while out on bail, public broadcaster NHK said on Thursday, shedding some light on how he managed a dramatic escape to Lebanon.

Prosecutors on Thursday raided the Tokyo residence of the former Nissan Motor Co Ltd chairman, NHK also reported.

Ghosn, one of the world's best-known executives, has become Japan's most famous fugitive after he revealed on Tuesday he had fled to Lebanon to escape what he called a "rigged" justice system.

The businessman, who holds French, Lebanese and Brazilian citizenship, was smuggled out of Tokyo by a private security company days ago, the culmination of a plan that was crafted over three months, Reuters has reported.

Ghosn was first arrested in Tokyo in November 2018 and faces four charges — which he denies — including hiding income and enriching himself through payments to car dealerships in the Middle East. He enjoyed an outpouring of support from Lebanon after his arrest.

Japanese authorities have not officially commented on Ghosn's disappearance. Government offices are shut this week for the New Year holiday.

Officials in Lebanon said Ghosn entered legally on a French passport. But one of Ghosn's Japanese lawyers has said the lawyers were still in possession of all three of his passports, under the terms of his bail.

However, Ghosn had been issued a spare French passport, NHK said, citing unidentified sources, and carried it in the months before his departure.

NHK, citing the sources, said he had been "obliged" to carry the passport with him since May, without elaborating on the reason. Foreigners in Japan are required to carry government-issued identification cards or passports at all times.

NHK said his lawyers applied to have the terms of his bail changed so that he could carry a passport in a locked case.

The key to the locked case in which the spare passport was kept was held by his lawyers, NHK said.

No one was immediately available for comment at the office of his lawyer, Junichiro Hironaka, the French embassy in Tokyo, or at the Tokyo District Public Prosecutors Office.

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2020-01-02 06:31:00Z
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Ghosn met Lebanese president after fleeing Japan: sources - Reuters

BEIRUT (Reuters) - Fugitive former Nissan chairman Carlos Ghosn met Lebanon’s president after his escape from Japan, where he was smuggled out of house arrest by a private security company, two sources close to Ghosn said on Wednesday.

FILE PHOTO: Former Nissan Motor Chariman Carlos Ghosn leaves the Tokyo Detention House in Tokyo, Japan April 25, 2019. REUTERS/Issei Kato/File Photo

One of the sources said Ghosn was greeted warmly by President Michel Aoun on Monday after flying into Beirut via Istanbul and was now in a buoyant and combative mood and felt secure.

In his meeting at the presidency, Ghosn thanked Aoun for the support he had given him and his wife Carole while he was in detention, the sources said. He now needs the protection and security of his government after fleeing Japan, they added.

A media advisor to the president’s office denied the two men had met.

Lebanese officials have said there would be no need to take legal measures against Ghosn because he entered the country legally on a French passport, although Ghosn’s French, Lebanese, and Brazilian passports are with lawyers in Japan.

The French and Lebanese foreign ministries have said they were unaware of the circumstances of his journey.

Lebanon has no extradition agreement with Japan, where he faced trial on charges of financial misconduct, which he denied.

Under the terms of his bail, he had been confined to his house in Tokyo and had to have cameras installed at the entrance. He was prevented from communicating with his wife, Carole, and had his use of the internet and other communications curtailed.

The sources said the Lebanese ambassador to Japan had visited him daily while he was in detention.

‘PURE FICTION’

While some Lebanese media have floated a Houdini-like account of Ghosn being packed in a wooden container for musical instruments after a private concert in his home, his wife called the account pure fiction when contacted by Reuters.

She declined to provide details of the exit of one of the most recognize titans of industry. The accounts of the two sources suggest a carefully planned escape few were aware of.

They said a private security firm oversaw the plan, which was three months in the making and involved shuttling Ghosn out via a private jet to Istanbul before pushing onward to Beirut, with even the pilot unaware of Ghosn’s presence on board.

“It was a very professional operation from start to finish” said one of the sources. The other source said Ghosn was in good health.

In a written statement, Ghosn said after his arrival that he had “escaped injustice and political persecution” and would begin communicating with media next week. Sources close to him said he was unwilling to share details of his escape so as not to jeopardize those who aided him in Japan.

He is staying at the home of a relative of his wife, but plans to return soon to a gated villa in the upscale Beirut neighborhood of Achrafieh, one of the sources said.

He was first arrested in Tokyo in November 2018 and faces four charges - which he denies - including hiding income and enriching himself through payments to dealerships in the Middle East.

Nissan sacked him as chairman saying internal investigations revealed misconduct including understating his salary while he was its chief executive, and transferring $5 million of Nissan funds to an account in which he had an interest.

Ghosn has enjoyed an outpouring of support from Lebanese since his 2018 arrest, with billboards proclaiming “We are all Carlos Ghosn” erected in solidarity with his case.

Locally he is considered a poster boy for success in a country where rampant unemployment pushes young Lebanese abroad to find work and the economy relies heavily on remittances amid a deep financial crisis that has sparked a wave of protests.

Ghosn was born in Brazil but of Lebanese descent and lived in Lebanon as a child. He oversaw a turnaround at French carmaker Renault that won him the nickname “Le Cost Killer” and used similar methods to revive Nissan.

Reporting by Samia Nakhoul and Laila Bassam; writing by Eric Knecht; editing by Philippa Fletcher

Our Standards:The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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2020-01-01 15:41:00Z
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Here's what's open and closed New Years Day - CNN

Here's what's open and closed on New Years Day. Hours vary by location and some places close early for the holiday, so it's best to call ahead to check.

Target -- Open regular hours

Walmart -- Open regular hours

Kroger-- Open regular hours

Publix -- Open, but many stores have limited hours

Whole Foods -- Open, but many stores have limited hours

Movie theaters -- Open regular hours

Zoos -- Open regular hours

Malls -- Most malls and department stores are open. Call your local stores to check.

Trader Joe's -- Closed

Costco -- Closed

Aldi -- Closed

Government-run locations, such as the Department of Motor Vehicles and public libraries, are most likely going to be closed.

The US Postal Service will not deliver mail Wednesday, and US post offices are closed as well. FedEx and UPS will also be closed.

Banks are generally closed, although ATMs are always available.

If you plan to visit a museum, call to make sure they aren't closed. Not every museum is open on New Year's Day.

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2020-01-01 11:48:00Z
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Carlos Ghosn: How did the Nissan ex-boss flee from Japan? - BBC News

He was once a titan of the car industry who held hero status in Japan. He then became one of the country's most well-known criminal suspects. Now he's an international fugitive.

Carlos Ghosn, the multi-millionaire former boss of Nissan, spent months preparing to stand trial on financial misconduct charges. At least, that was what the Japanese authorities were led to believe.

He posted 1bn yen (£6.8m; $8.9m) in bail in April. He was monitored by a 24-hour camera installed outside his house. His use of technology was heavily restricted and he was banned from travelling abroad.

Then, in a move that left Japan red-faced and his own legal team baffled, he appeared in Lebanon on New Year's Eve. "I have escaped injustice and political persecution," he declared in a statement.

"We were completely caught by surprise. I am dumbfounded," his lawyer, Junichiro Hironaka, told a crowd of reporters in Tokyo shortly after learning of Mr Ghosn's flight. "I want to ask him, 'How could you do this to us?'"

Another pressing question is: how did he do it at all?

A musical escape?

One Lebanese TV channel - MTV - reported that Mr Ghosn had fled his court-approved residence in Tokyo with the assistance of a paramilitary group who were disguised amongst a band of musicians.

It said the band had performed at his house and, shortly after they had finished, the 65-year-old hid himself in a large musical instrument case which was then hurried to a local airport. If this really happened, it may have been a tight squeeze even for Mr Ghosn, whose height is reported at 5ft 6in (167cm).

According to the MTV story, he then flew to Turkey, before arriving in Lebanon on a private jet. The broadcaster provided no proof for this theory which, unsurprisingly, spread rapidly across social media.

But donning a spy-movie disguise is not beyond Mr Ghosn. In March, in a bid to throw journalists off his scent, he left prison disguised as a construction worker. He was quickly identified, mocked in the media, and his lawyer soon apologised for the "amateur plan".

The role of Carole Ghosn

The former CEO's getaway from Tokyo to Beirut was meticulously planned over a period of several weeks, according to the Wall Street Journal.

The newspaper, which cited a number of unidentified sources, said a team was carefully assembled to carry out the plot. The group reportedly included accomplices in Japan who transported Mr Ghosn from his house and onto a private jet bound for Istanbul. From there, he continued his journey to Beirut where he arrived in the early hours of 30 December.

The plane tracking site FlightRadar24 showed a a Bombardier Challenger private jet arriving at Beirut-Rafic Hariri international airport shortly after 04:00 local time. Mr Ghosn then met his wife Carole, who was born in the city and was heavily involved in the operation, the Wall Street Journal says.

Several reports have said Carole Ghosn was a major figure behind the plan for her husband to skip bail and get out of Japan. She spoke with him for more than an hour on 24 December, Mr Ghosn's Japanese lawyer said. The couple had previously been banned from meeting or communicating under Mr Ghosn's strict bail conditions.

After he arrived in Lebanon, Mrs Ghosn told the Wall Street Journal that their reunion was "the best gift of my life". She has not commented on her alleged involvement in the operation.

Earlier this year she told the BBC: "I want my husband back. I want him with me. I know he is innocent."

Media playback is unsupported on your device

Carlos Ghosn grew up in Lebanon, owns property there and is a popular figure. He even appeared on one of the country's postage stamps.

He has repeatedly denied any wrongdoing.

Three passports

Questions remain about the documents Mr Ghosn used to enter Lebanon. He holds three passports - Brazilian, French and Lebanese - but his legal team maintain that they were in possession of all of them when he left Japan. It is not known whether Mr Ghosn was holding duplicate passports - as businesspeople are sometimes allowed to do.

While the French newspaper Le Monde said he travelled on an ID card, others have reported that he used a French passport or a false identity with forged documents. Lebanon's foreign ministry has not said what passport Mr Ghosn travelled on, but insisted that he entered the country legally.

The embarrassment caused by Mr Ghosn's flight soon sparked a reaction from Japan. One Japanese politician asked whether he "had the support of some country". A former governor of Tokyo was more forthright, accusing Lebanon of direct involvement.

"The government has nothing to do with [Mr Ghosn's] decision to come," Lebanese minister Salim Jreissati was quoted as saying by the New York Times. "We don't know the circumstances of his arrival."

There is no extradition deal between Japan and Lebanon, which means the future of Mr Ghosn's trial is now fraught with uncertainty.

Japan gives millions in aid to Lebanon and will likely want Mr Ghosn returned. But it will no doubt have to answer further questions about how such a high-profile suspect was able to get out of the country in the first place.

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2020-01-01 13:01:05Z
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