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Selasa, 21 Januari 2020

CEOs haven't been this pessimistic about the world economy since 2009 - Axios

DAVOS — A parade of billionaires, CEOs, world leaders and hangers-on has now arrived in Davos, Switzerland, bearing skis, packed schedules and deep concerns about the global economy.

PwC's annual Global CEO survey — 1,581 CEOs across 83 territories — was conducted in the fall and released tonight as the World Economic Forum opened. It makes for some pretty alarming reading.

The big picture: 53% of CEOs expect global economic growth to decline in 2020, up from 29% in 2019 and just 5% in 2018. Their views of their own companies’ prospects were the bleakest since 2009.

That sentiment was spread across all regions, though CEOs in the Asia-Pacific are most optimistic and North American CEOs least so.

What they’re worried about:

CEOs in the Asia-Pacific view trade conflicts as the top threat to their organizations’ bottom lines, while geopolitical uncertainty is the top concern in the Middle East, populism ranks first in Latin America, policy uncertainty in Africa and cyber threats in North America.
Over-regulation is the biggest concern among CEOs in Europe, and also finishes top in the global average.

What they’re doing about it:

Trade conflicts didn’t even register as a top 10 concern until last year, but are now top-of-mind, particularly in China.
Chinese CEOs who are “extremely concerned” about trade conflicts are far more likely to say they’re shifting production to alternative territories than a year ago (44% then, 63% now).
Among "extremely concerned" U.S. CEOs, 50% are adjusting supply chains but just 23% are moving production, while 34% aren't making any changes at all (compared to 5% in China).
Worth noting: Chinese CEOs now list Australia, not the U.S., as the most important country for their growth prospects.

What they foresee:

CEOs around the world expect massive changes for big tech. By 2022, most anticipate more regulations (71%), including on social media, the break-up of dominant firms (63%), and compensation of individual users for their data (51%).
While companies are eager to stress their climate consciousness while in Davos, just 24% of CEOs are “extremely concerned” about climate change.
In China, though, the percentage of CEOs who see new opportunities for their companies through climate change initiatives has jumped from 2% in 2010 to 47% now — far higher than in Germany (20%) or the U.S. (15%).

Who's coming to Davos

15,000 total attendees (3,000 of them with official invitations) including 100 billionaires and 53 heads of state or government, per Politico.

Climate will dominate the official agenda. I eavesdropped on a few attendees tonight discussing whom they most wanted to see, and Greta Thunberg was the consensus pick. Soon after, placard-waving climate protesters chanted their way through the streets
Several panels will also be dedicated to inequality and human rights.

Between the lines: The irony of the uber-rich and super-powerful arriving by private jet to discuss these topics in a proudly exclusive setting (there are at least 10 tiers of access badge) is lost on no one.

But the sheer concentration of power and wealth in one Alpine town makes Davos, now in its 50th year, a hard-to-match destination for deal-making and consensus-building.

Trump in town

Davos opened this evening on the third anniversary of President Trump's inauguration, and on the eve of impeachment proceedings that will likely be watched more closely than his speech on Tuesday morning.

The big picture: Trump’s America First populism and climate skepticism are anathema to the Davos set, but his tax cuts and economic record are not.

Two candidates who scare many CEOs more than Trump — Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren — are among the top contenders in the Iowa caucuses, which begin two weeks from today.
Kellyanne Conway told reporters ahead of Trump’s trip that he planned to “take on the perils of socialism right there in Davos,” while heralding his NAFTA replacement deal and partial trade agreement with China.

Trump's Davos dance card:

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen
Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan
Iraqi President Barham Salih
Kurdistan Regional Government President Nechirvan Barzani
Swiss President Simonetta Sommaruga
World Economic Forum Founder Klaus Schwab

Also heading to Davos: Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaidó, who is defying a travel ban and may struggle to re-enter Venezuela.

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2020-01-21 13:02:00Z
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CEOs haven't been this pessimistic about the world economy since 2009 - Axios

DAVOS — A parade of billionaires, CEOs, world leaders and hangers-on has now arrived in Davos, Switzerland, bearing skis, packed schedules and deep concerns about the global economy.

PwC's annual Global CEO survey — 1,581 CEOs across 83 territories — was conducted in the fall and released tonight as the World Economic Forum opened. It makes for some pretty alarming reading.

That sentiment was spread across all regions, though CEOs in the Asia-Pacific are most optimistic and North American CEOs least so.

What they’re worried about:

CEOs in the Asia-Pacific view trade conflicts as the top threat to their organizations’ bottom lines, while geopolitical uncertainty is the top concern in the Middle East, populism ranks first in Latin America, policy uncertainty in Africa and cyber threats in North America.
Over-regulation is the biggest concern among CEOs in Europe, and also finishes top in the global average.

What they’re doing about it:

Trade conflicts didn’t even register as a top 10 concern until last year, but are now top-of-mind, particularly in China.
Chinese CEOs who are “extremely concerned” about trade conflicts are far more likely to say they’re shifting production to alternative territories than a year ago (44% then, 63% now).
Among "extremely concerned" U.S. CEOs, 50% are adjusting supply chains but just 23% are moving production, while 34% aren't making any changes at all (compared to 5% in China).
Worth noting: Chinese CEOs now list Australia, not the U.S., as the most important country for their growth prospects.

What they foresee:

CEOs around the world expect massive changes for big tech. By 2022, most anticipate more regulations (71%), including on social media, the break-up of dominant firms (63%), and compensation of individual users for their data (51%).
While companies are eager to stress their climate consciousness while in Davos, just 24% of CEOs are “extremely concerned” about climate change.
In China, though, the percentage of CEOs who see new opportunities for their companies through climate change initiatives has jumped from 2% in 2010 to 47% now — far higher than in Germany (20%) or the U.S. (15%).

Who's coming to Davos

15,000 total attendees (3,000 of them with official invitations) including 100 billionaires and 53 heads of state or government, per Politico.

Climate will dominate the official agenda. I eavesdropped on a few attendees tonight discussing whom they most wanted to see, and Greta Thunberg was the consensus pick. Soon after, placard-waving climate protesters chanted their way through the streets
Several panels will also be dedicated to inequality and human rights.

But the sheer concentration of power and wealth in one Alpine town makes Davos, now in its 50th year, a hard-to-match destination for deal-making and consensus-building.

Trump in town

The big picture: Trump’s America First populism and climate skepticism are anathema to the Davos set, but his tax cuts and economic record are not.

Two candidates who scare many CEOs more than Trump — Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren — are among the top contenders in the Iowa caucuses, which begin two weeks from today.
Kellyanne Conway told reporters ahead of Trump’s trip that he planned to “take on the perils of socialism right there in Davos,” while heralding his NAFTA replacement deal and partial trade agreement with China.

Trump's Davos dance card:

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen
Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan
Iraqi President Barham Salih
Kurdistan Regional Government President Nechirvan Barzani
Swiss President Simonetta Sommaruga
World Economic Forum Founder Klaus Schwab

Also heading to Davos: Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaidó, who is defying a travel ban and may struggle to re-enter Venezuela.

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Huawei founder says Chinese giant can 'survive further attacks' from the US as he predicts escalation - CNBC

Huawei CEO Ren Zhengfei attends a session at the Congress center during the World Economic Forum (WEF) annual meeting in Davos, on January 21, 2020. (Photo by Fabrice COFFRINI / AFP) (Photo by FABRICE COFFRINI/AFP via Getty Images)

Fabrice Coffrini | AFP | Getty Images

Washington may step up its campaign against Huawei, but the impact on business will be minimal, the Chinese telecom giant's founder, Ren Zhengfei, said on Tuesday.

Huawei has been the target of U.S. concern over its links to the Chinese government. Washington maintains that Huawei is a national security risk because its networking equipment could be used for espionage by the Chinese government. Huawei denies all the claims.

Last year Huawei was put on a U.S. blacklist that restricted its access to American technology. Ren expects that pressure to continue.

"This year the U.S. might further escalate their campaign against Huawei, but I feel the impact on Huawei's business would not be very significant," Ren said at the World Economic Forum in Davos.

"This year in 2020, since we already gained experience from last year and we got a stronger team, I think we are more confident that we can survive even further attacks," he added.

Washington has been pressuring allies, most recently the U.K., to block Huawei from next-generation mobile networks known as 5G. Meanwhile, the U.S. is looking to introduce a rule that could block an increased number of foreign-made goods to Huawei, Reuters reported earlier this month, citing unnamed sources.

The blacklist even lead to Huawei having to release a flagship smartphone without licensed Google Android software.

But Huawei has been investing in its own core technology over the past few years, including chips and software. Last year Huawei launched its own operating system, called HarmonyOS, but it has not put it on any of its smartphones yet.

Ren said that Huawei has spent "hundreds of billions" to prepare a "plan B," which has allowed the company to survive.

"If we had this sense of security from the U.S., we did not have the need to come up with these back up plans. Since we didn't have that sense of security, we spent hundreds of billions to put our own plan B. That's why we withstood the first round of attack," Ren said.

The Huawei founder added that the U.S. is "overconcerned" with his company.

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2020-01-21 10:36:00Z
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European luxury stocks blasted over virus worries as UBS hit by lowered guidance - MarketWatch

European stocks slumped on Tuesday as worries over a spreading virus in China as well as weak guidance from Swiss banking giant UBS weighed.

The Stoxx Europe 600 SXXP, -0.74% declined 0.75% to 420.79, with declines from luxury-goods producers that rely on Asia for demand. LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton MC, -2.66% , Burberry Group BRBY, -3.86% and Compagnie Financiere Richemont CFR, -3.38% each fell over 3%.

U.S. stock futures ES00, -0.40% also were lower as American traders returned from the three-day break.

More than 200 people have been infected by a new coronavirus outbreak, and four have died, which a Chinese government official said can be spread from human to human. The spreading virus is reminiscent of the SARS outbreak in 2002 and 2003.

Of stocks in the spotlight, UBS shares UBSG, -5.08% UBS, -0.45% fell 5% on the Swiss banking giant’s downbeat guidance even as fourth-quarter results beat analyst estimates.

UBS forecast a cost-to-income ratio between 75% and 78% in 2022, versus guidance of 72% by the end of 2021. UBS also targeted a return on capital between 12% and 15% between 2020 and 2022, against a previous target of 17% through 2021.

EasyJet EZJ, +4.10% shares rose 4.7% as the budget airline expects to narrow its first-half loss before tax and said its first-half revenue per seat at constant currencies will grow mid-to-high single digits, versus a previous expectation of low-to-mid-single-digit growth. Fiscal first-quarter revenue rose 9.9% to £1.425 billion.

The airline said it benefited from the collapse of rival Thomas Cook in September.

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2020-01-21 09:55:00Z
CAIiEDIizltDEx4P6zDoOMT1lRcqGAgEKg8IACoHCAowjujJATDXzBUwiJS0AQ

Asia markets slide as concerns over coronavirus take hold - MarketWatch

BEIJING (AP) — Asian stock markets tumbled Tuesday as concern about the economic impact of a Chinese disease outbreak rose.

Japan’s central bank left its key interest rate unchanged and revised up its economic growth outlook.

Market indexes in Shanghai, Tokyo, Hong Kong and Sydney all retreated following the Chinese government’s announcement of a fourth death from coronavirus. The outbreak, centered on the city of Wuhan, has sickened more than 200 people.

Authorities said some infections were transmitted person-to-person, increasing the risk the disease might spread faster during the Lunar New Year holiday, the Chinese-speaking world’s busiest travel season. That prompted selling of shares in airlines, hotel operators and other travel-related companies.

Other Asian governments stepped up screening of travelers from China, highlighting the potential impact on tourism revenue.

The outbreak “is developing into a major potential economic risk to the Asia-Pacific region,” said Rajiv Biswas of IHS Markit in a report.

The outbreak and measures to stop it have could affect tourism, retailing, restaurants, air travel and other industries, said Biswas. He pointed to the example of the 2003 outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome, whose economic impact was felt as far away as Canada and Australia.

The Shanghai Composite Index SHCOMP, -1.41% fell 1% to 3,063.56 and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index HSI, -2.81% was off 2.3% at 28,136.04. Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 NIK, -0.91% retreated 0.9% to 23,866.15.

Seoul’s Kospi 180721, -1.01% sank 0.8% to 2,245.29 and Sydney’s S&P-ASX 200 XJO, -0.19% was off 0.3% at 7,055.40. India’s Sensex 1, -0.33% opened down 0.3% at 41,400.48 Southeast Asian markets also declined.

Japan’s ANA Holdings Inc. fell 2.2%, while Hong Kong-based carrier Cathay Pacific dropped 4.8%. China Eastern Airlines lost 2.6%.

The Bank of Japan left its policy rate at -0.1% and reaffirmed its commitment to increase holdings of government bonds. Board members raised their projection of economic growth in the year that starts in April to 0.9% from 0.7%.

The European central bank also is due to make an interest rate decision this week.

Benchmark U.S. oil fell 17 cents to $58.41 per barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract gained 5 cents on Monday to close at $58.58. Brent crude, used to price international oils, lost 35 cents to $64.85 per barrel in London. It advanced 35 cents the previous session to $65.20.

The dollar declined to 109.98 yen from Monday’s 110.18 yen. The euro gained to $1.1100 from $1.1094.

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2020-01-21 07:16:00Z
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Senin, 20 Januari 2020

69% of Older Americans Are Missing Out on This Key Retirement Savings Opportunity - The Motley Fool

Your senior income will need to come from somewhere, and unless you're privy to a pension, which many workers today are not, you'll most likely rely on a combination of Social Security benefits and retirement savings to cover your bills once your time in the workforce wraps up. Social Security will probably replace around 40% of your pre-retirement income, provided you're an average earner. But most seniors need roughly double that amount to live comfortably, and so if you want to enjoy your golden years, you'll need a healthy level of savings in your IRA or 401(k).

But a large number of older Americans are behind in this regard, reports TD Ameritrade in a new survey. An estimated 37% of workers in their 50s, 28% of workers in their 60s, and 20% of workers in their 70s have less than $50,000 socked away for the future. And these are the people who really need to catch up.

Fanned-out stack of 100-dollar bills against a blue background

IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.

Thankfully, that option is very much on the table with IRAs and 401(k)s, as both plans allow workers 50 and over to contribute more money on an annual basis than their younger counterparts. Younger workers can contribute up to $6,000 a year to an IRA, but for those 50 and over, that limit increases to $7,000. Meanwhile, workers under 50 can put up to $19,500 into a 401(k), but that limit rises to $26,000 among those 50 and older.

But despite the option to make catch-up contributions in an IRA or 401(k), 69% of workers aged 50 to 79 aren't taking advantage of it. If you're behind on building savings, you'd be wise to capitalize on the catch-up option in your retirement plan. Otherwise, you may not be happy with your financial picture later on.

What can catch-up contributions do for you?

As a general rule, it's a good idea to aim to close out your career with 10 times your ending salary saved up. If you're not all that far away from retirement and are also nowhere close, then taking advantage of catch-up contributions could be your best bet.

Imagine you're 55 with $40,000 in your IRA and that you're aiming to retire at age 70. If you contribute $6,000 a year to that plan over the next 15 years, and your investments generate an average annual 7% return (which is doable when you invest heavily in stocks), you'll grow your balance to about $261,000. But if you max out your IRA at $7,000 a year instead during that decade and a half, you'll wind up with a little more than $286,000. And that extra $25,000 could make a huge difference down the line.

The gap between making catch-up contributions or not gets even wider with a 401(k). Let's adjust the above scenario to account for 401(k) limits. If you're starting with $40,000 at age 55 and contribute $19,500 to your savings over 15 years, you'll wind up with about $600,000, assuming an average annual 7% return. But if you take advantage of catch-ups in that account, socking away $26,000 annually for the next 15 years instead, you'll end up with close to $764,000.

Of course, if you're doing fairly well savings-wise and are on track to retire with 10 times your ending salary or more, then you may not need to push yourself to make catch-up contributions to your IRA or 401(k). But if you're behind on savings, don't miss out on that key opportunity to make up for lost time.

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2020-01-20 11:16:00Z
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Google Pushes ‘Sensible’ Ideas for How to Regulate AI - Wall Street Journal

Google CEO Sundar Pichai’s says “Sensible regulation must also take a proportionate approach” to artificial... — Google CEO Sundar Pichai’s says “Sensible regulation must also take a proportionate approach” to artificial intelligence, “balancing potential harms with opportunities.” Photo: Geert Vanden Wijngaert/Bloomberg News

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The Wall Street Journal

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@samschech
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Sam.Schechner@wsj.com

Valentina Pop

The Wall Street Journal

Biography
@ValentinaPop
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Jan. 20, 2020 6:50 am ET

BRUSSELS—Silicon Valley executives and lobbyists like to say they embrace regulation. Now they’re launching a frenzy of lobbying on what they want that regulation to be—and Europe is set to be one of the first battlegrounds.

On Monday, Sundar Pichai, the new chief executive of Google parent Alphabet Inc., gave a policy speech in Brussels, which is poised to release a raft of new regulatory proposals for the tech business, including a white paper due next month on possible rules for artificial intelligence.

Mr. Pichai’s message to policymakers: “Sensible regulation must also take a proportionate approach” to artificial intelligence, “balancing potential harms with social opportunities.”

“There is no question in my mind that artificial intelligence needs to be regulated. The question is how best to approach this,” Mr. Pichai said.

Silicon Valley companies have faced a growing backlash against their vast market power and their perceived abuses of it. Some complain the companies have created an ecosystem designed to vacuum up and weaponize consumers’ personal information. Other say they snuff out competition by buying or railroading would-be rivals.

SHARE YOUR THOUGHTS

How much influence do you think Europe will, or should, have on global tech regulation? Join the conversation below.

Hauled before legislatures and policymakers in the U.S. and Europe, tech companies’ response has generally been to call for some regulation. The question of course is what they would be willing to accept in practice. Proposals from the European Commission, the European Union’s executive arm, will likely provide an early testing ground for how these debates will play out.

“This new Commission is very focused on technology and asks a lot of important and legitimate questions,” said Christian Borggreen, vice president for Europe at the Computer & Communications Industry Association, a U.S.-based lobby group that represents Amazon.com Inc, Facebook Inc. and Google, among other tech companies. “We believe in a targeted regulatory intervention, rather than a one size fits all.”

Under the commission’s new president, Ursula von der Leyen, the EU is set to consider new digital-competition rules for the digital age and rules about the free flow of data inside the EU, Margrethe Vestager, the EU’s competition chief has now taken on an expanded portfolio, putting her in charge of proposing new digital regulations—giving her added influence.

Multiple executives are in Brussels Monday before heading to Davos, Switzerland, for the annual World Economic Forum that begins Tuesday. Brad Smith, Microsoft Corp. ’s president, is slated to meet with Ms. Vestager on Monday before giving a speech of his own about “the promise and perils of the digital age.”

Mr. Pichai, for his part, is scheduled to meet with both Ms. Vestager and Frans Timmermans, the commission vice president in charge of the Green Deal, a set of policies aimed at transforming the continent’s economy, including digital services such as cloud computing, into one that curbs greenhouse gas emissions.

Selasa, 21 Januari 2020

Who's coming to Davos

Trump in town

Who's coming to Davos

Trump in town

Senin, 20 Januari 2020

What can catch-up contributions do for you?

SHARE YOUR THOUGHTS

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