President Donald Trump says he is particularly pleased with the jobs created during his three years in office.
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"We're producing jobs like you have never seen before in this country," he said during a recent speech in Michigan.
But you don't have to go back far to find three years of better job growth. Just to back to the previous three years under Barack Obama.
During Trump's first 36 months in office, the US economy has gained 6.6 million jobs. But during a comparable 36-month period at the end of Obama's tenure, employers added 8.1 million jobs, or 23% more than what has been added since Trump took office.
The average monthly gain so far under Trump is 182,000 jobs. During the last 36 months under Obama, employers were adding an average of 224,000 jobs a month.
On Friday, the Labor Department reported that employers added a fairly robust 225,000 jobs in January. But it also made some revisions to past data, which lowered many previous job growth estimates. While some of the revisions go all the way back to the last century, most of the changes to data took place during 2018 and 2019. So the revisions reduced the gains during Obama's final three years by 47,000 jobs, but it reduced the gains during Trump's tenure by a total of 354,000 jobs.
The job record under Trump is far better than the job record during Obama's first 35 months in office, when the economy lost 805,000 jobs. But Obama took office in the midst of the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. In the final job reading before Obama took office, the economy lost 784,000 jobs in that month alone. And it continued to lose jobs throughout the rest of 2009 as Obama's economic policies went into effect.
By comparison, Trump took office with the labor market in relatively good shape, with unemployment at 4.7%, and a string of 76 straight months of job gains. The labor market has clearly continued to improve. Unemployment of 3.6% in January is nearly at a 50-year low now. But it is a continuation of an improving job market, not the turnaround that occurred in the early years of the Obama administration.
And Trump's job record is not unique. A gain of more than 6.6 million jobs during a 35-month period has been common during the 80 years that the Labor Department has counted jobs. There are hundreds of overlapping 36-month periods of better growth on record.
At this point in his first and only term, Jimmy Carter had enjoyed a gain of about 10.1 million jobs. Employers added 8.5 million jobs during the first 36 months of Bill Clinton's term and 7.8 million jobs during the first 36 months of Lyndon Johnson's tenure, even though the labor force at that time was less than half the size of what it is today.
-- This story was updated from its original version to reflect the data from the January 2020 jobs report
The wireless industry’s biggest event of the year, Mobile World Congress, is still on the books for the end of February, but now the trade show’s future is in doubt after one of its largest exhibitors just pulled out due to the spread of Wuhan coronavirus.
Swedish telecom infrastructure company Ericsson usually takes up a massive amount of space at the Fira Gran Via convention center in Barcelona during MWC. This year the company was expected to show off a slew of 5G demos, as it has for the last couple of years. But Ericsson on Friday said it had decided to completely withdraw from the trade show after an internal risk assessment.
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“The health and safety of our employees, customers and other stakeholders are our highest priority,” Ericsson President and CEO Börje Ekholm said in a press statement. “This is not a decision we have taken lightly. We were looking forward to showcasing our latest innovations at MWC in Barcelona. It is very unfortunate, but we strongly believe the most responsible business decision is to withdraw our participation from this year’s event.”
Ericsson is the third company to announce a change of plans due to the coronavirus outbreak. ZTE is scaling back its presence at the show and has canceled its press conference, and LG has withdrawn from MWC entirely. But those companies have huge workforces in China; Ericsson is based in Sweden and is the first European company to withdraw from the event.
MWC’s organizing body, the GSMA, quickly released a statement following Ericsson’s announcement, reassuring vendors that the show will continue as planned, but noted that “Ericsson’s cancellation will have some impact on our presence at this time and will potentially have further impact.”
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Journalists and tech industry analysts who have been planning to attend the show for months are speculating on Twitter as to whether the whole thing could be called off. Gizmodo’s own Sam Rutherford is slated to attend the show, and we are kind of concerned about him (just a little bit). Companies don’t want to risk their employees getting sick, which is possible regardless of the preventative measures the GSMA has put in place (including widespread availability of disinfectants and increased on-site medical personnel).
If additional companies withdraw from the show, the GSMA may not have any choice but to cancel this year.
Two wildly opposing weeks for two of the biggest names in autos. But only one stock reigns supreme, says one top strategist.
“Early mover advantage is real, whether you are talking about nation building or building autonomous vehicles. And Ford has struggled,” said Hercules Investment CEO James McDonald on Yahoo Finance’s The First Trade. “I don’t like Ford. I don’t like manufacturing. I don’t like the auto sector. But I do love autonomous vehicles, AI and so Tesla will be the winner there.” Tesla shares are in one of McDonald’s portfolios.
The market loves Tesla, too.
It has been an insane week for the Elon Musk led Tesla. The electric vehicle maker saw its shares surge close to $1,000 earlier in the week amid a massive short covering rally following a much better than expected fourth quarter. The stock has since cooled to around $750 a share as of Friday afternoon. But even still, it’s up an insane 75% year-to-date as investors bet on Tesla continuing to pioneer the electric and autonomous vehicle markets.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk introduces the Cybertruck at Tesla's design studio Thursday, Nov. 21, 2019, in Hawthorne, Calif. Musk is taking on the workhorse heavy pickup truck market with his latest electric vehicle. (AP Photo/Ringo H.W. Chiu)
On the other hand, good ole’ Ford has had a week its top execs would probably like to forget.
Admitted execution issues in the U.S. tied to the new Explorer SUV and challenging conditions for automakers globally weighed on Ford to close out 2019. The company’s sales fell 5% from the prior year, adjusted operating profit margins dropped 230 basis points and free cash flow decreased to $500 million from $1.5 billion. Sales dropped in all geographic regions.
Ford’s stock is down about 9% over the past five sessions. Shares are lower by 13% on the year, despite the automaker making a strong pivot into electric vehicles with as $500 million investment in Tesla rival Rivian (among other actions).
“It doesn’t matter how much you spend, you have to have the most popular product to win. And Ford has struggled. They have the intelligence, but the products just aren’t competitive,” said McDonald.
Brian Sozzi is an editor-at-large and co-anchor of The First Trade at Yahoo Finance. Watch The First Trade each day here at 9:00 a.m. ET or on Verizon FIOS channel 604. Follow Sozzi on Twitter @BrianSozzi and on LinkedIn.
Check out the companies making headlines in midday trading on Friday.
Uber Technologies — Shares of Uber popped more than 9%, on pace for its best day ever since its IPO in May, after the ride-hailing company said it forecast reaching a key profitability goal sooner than expected. CEO Dara Khosrowshahi said Uber would move its EBITDA profitability target to Q4 2020 from a previous goal of becoming profitable by the end of 2021. The company also reported a better-than-expected loss per share.
Wynn Resorts — Wynn Resorts dropped 3.1%, bringing its one-month losses to more than 8%, as its business continues to be impacted by the coronavirus due to restricted travel in China and around the world. Hotel and cruise line companies have been taking the hardest hits from the deadly epidemic, with Las Vegas Sands and Carnival falling 4% and 12%, respectively, in the past month.
Activision — The video game maker's shares rose over 2% after the company reported fourth-quarter earnings of $1.23 a share, stronger than the $1.19 a share Wall Street expected, according to a Refinitiv survey. Activision also raised its dividend by 11% to 41 cents a share, although its forecast of fiscal year earnings and revenue were below analysts' expectations according to FactSet.
T-Mobile — Shares rose more than 2% after the company reported fourth-quarter earnings that beat analysts' expectations on the top and bottom line. Revenue came in at $11.88 billion, which was ahead of the $11.82 billion analysts had been expecting, according to estimates from FactSet. The mobile service provider earned 87 cents per share in the quarter, which topped the consensus estimate of 83 cents.
eBay — eBay slumped 3.5% on Friday after NYSE-parent company Intercontinental Exchange announced that it would not continue to explore a possible acquisition of the e-commerce company. The stock had jumped sharply on Tuesday after the potential deal was reported. Shares are still trading above where they closed on Monday.
Pinterest — Pinterest rose more than 12% in midday trading after the company reported better-than-expected profit and revenue for the fourth quarter. Analysts were pleased to see that Pinterest continued to invest in efforts to monetize its platform as well as improvements to its shopping features.
"Because of the timing of new product rollouts, ad tech improvements, and focus on self-serve tools, among other key areas of focus, we may continue to see variability in growth rates, but overall we see Pinterest's continued focus to drive shoppability on its site, and tie together top of funnel consumer behavior with transactability as a unique opportunity," wrote Wedbush analyst Ygal Arounian.
Canada Goose — Canada Goose shares dropped more than 4% after the Canadian clothing company issued weaker-than-forecast guidance for fiscal 2020. The company expects earnings per share to range between 1.33 Canadian dollars per share and CA$1.37 per share. That's below a FactSet estimate of CA$1.65 per share.
— CNBC's Yun Li, Pippa Stevens, Michael Sheetz, Fred Imbert and Jesse Pound contributed reporting.
U.S. stocks were on track to decline for the first time in five sessions, giving back some of the gains from earlier in the week despite a strong January jobs report.
12:30 p.m. How likely is Medicare-for-all, wealth tax?
...According to JPMorgan Chase, about 5%. With a growing number of markets participants starting to sweat over the potential for Bernie Sanders (or even Mass. Senator Elizabeth Warren) winning the Democratic nomination, JPM economist Jesse Edgerton says not to worry:
“...we still put a very low probability on Senator Sanders’s or Warren’s most dramatic policy proposals being enacted any time soon, for several reasons. First, the Democratic nomination process is far from over. Joe Biden still leads in the most recent nationwide polls, Pete Buttigieg won the most “delegate equivalents” in Iowa, and Michael Bloomberg has been rising in both polls and markets.
Second, it looks close to a coin flip at this point whether President Trump will ultimately defeat the Democratic nominee, as prediction markets put his reelection chances a bit above 50%. And finally, even if Senator Sanders were to become president, there would still be many checks and balances on his ability to act.
Most notably, passing even remotely controversial fiscal policies would almost certainly require Democratic control of both the House and the Senate. We think the probability of Sanders or Warren becoming president and the Democrats controlling both the House and Senate is less than 10%. And even in this case, opportunities to make policy would be limited by both the filibuster rules and the power of moderate Democrats.”
The bank’s logic, which echoes much of Wall Street’s conventional wisdom, is that major policy changes have to pass muster in both chambers of Congress. “Thus, both the House and the Senate would almost certainly need to be controlled by Democrats for policies like these to have any chance at all,” Edgerton wrote.
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10:25 a.m. ET: What economists are saying about the January jobs report
Most economists viewed favorably the better than expected January jobs report, pointing to the print as another point adding to a constellation of positive indicators about the U.S. labor market.
Here’s what a number of economists had to say about the report, based on statements emailed to Yahoo Finance:
Rubeela Farooqi, chief U.S. economist for High Frequency Economics: “Overall, a strong gain in payrolls to start the year. The 3-month average stands at a solid 211K. The unemployment rate remains historically low and though the pace of wage gains had moderated, the latest reading is encouraging. These data remain supportive of an ‘on hold’ Fed stance, as the Fed assesses the impact of prior rate cuts on the economy.”
Charlie Ripley, Senior Investment Strategist for Allianz Investment Management: “The real question for most market participants is whether the endurance of job additions will continue to persist throughout the remainder of the year. Last year’s average payroll additions were 175k per month and today’s data reiterates the need for labor as the current economic expansion continues. Wage increases were stronger than December’s data with a 0.2% monthly gain and we suspect this will be a continuing theme throughout the year as employers attempt to attract workers within tight labor market conditions. Overall, the January employment report provided a clear indication we haven’t reached the end of the current economic cycle.”
Ian Shepherdson, Pantheon Macroeconomics chief economist: “Looking ahead, surveys continue to point to substantially slower payroll growth, but the hard data have outperformed substantially in recent months and show no signs yet of fading. Even so, January’s jump in payrolls likely will be followed by a significantly smaller increase in February, as favorable weather effects fade and healthcare job growth mean-reverts.”
Nick Bunker, Indeed economic research director: “Overall, this was a strong report. Even the seemingly negative trends are actually positive. The slight increase in the unemployment rate might seem concerning, but it is actually due to a pick up in workers reentering the labor market. The labor force participation rate for people in their prime working years increased in January, but remains below previous highs. All signs point to a further pick up in this rate if the labor market continues to grow.”
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9:37 a.m. ET: Stocks open lower even after strong jobs report
The three major domestic stock indices opened lower Friday morning, with the Dow off more than 100 points.
Declines in the Dow were led by shares of Dow Inc. and Goldman Sachs around market open. The Materials and Energy sectors led declines in the S&P 500, as U.S. crude oil prices declined more than 1%.
Here were the main moves in markets, as of 9:37 a.m. ET:
S&P 500 (^GSPC): -0.58% or -19.34 points to 3,326.44
9:20 a.m. ET: How Credit Suisse’s chief met his downfall
Credit Suisse’s (CS) stock is down modestly ahead of the opening bell. Early Friday, the storied Swiss bank accepted the resignation of CEO Tidjane Thiam, capping a spectacular spying scandal that rocked the industry’s usually sleepy world.
Yahoo Finance’s Oscar Williams-Grut breaks down how the lurid scandal — which includes cocktail party bust-ups, car chases, and clandestine operations at the bank — began last year, and culminated in a public power struggle that Thiam ultimately lost.
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8:30 a.m. ET: Economy created 225,000 jobs in January
The U.S. labor market went from strength-to-strength in January, beginning 2020 by adding 225,000 jobs — but the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.6% (still a 50-year low) as more workers entered the labor pool, which drove up the participation rate to 63.4%. The blowout number was far above Wall Street’s consensus, and was presaged by Wednesday’s ADP private payrolls report.
Stock futures remain in the red, but pare some losses on the news, as coronavirus fears continue to weigh.
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7:33 a.m. ET: Stock futures fall ahead of January jobs report
Contracts on the three major indices were lower before the Department of Labor’s January jobs report, set for release at 8:30 a.m. ET. Heading into Friday’s session, the S&P 500 was up 3.7% since the end of last week through Thursday’s close.
The “official”jobs report is expected to show payroll gains totaled 165,000 in January, representing an increase after December’s 145,000 additions. The unemployment rate likely held at a 50-year low of 3.5%. Average hourly wage gains, which disappointed in the December jobs report, are expected to have accelerated slightly to a 3.0% increase year on year.
Meanwhile, investors continued to monitor the spread of the coronavirus. The death toll from the outbreak has so far totaled 636 in mainland China, among more than 31,000 confirmed cases. Carmakers including Toyota have extended shutdowns at their manufacturing centers in China to try and contain the spread of the disease.
Here were the main moves during the pre-market session, as of 7:33 a.m. ET:
S&P futures (ES=F): 3,335.5, down 9.75 points or 0.29%
Dow futures (YM=F): 29,227.00, down 101 points or 0.34%
Nasdaq futures (NQ=F): 9,425.50, down 30 points or 0.32%
Crude oil (CL=F): $50.58 per barrel, down $0.37 or 0.73%
Gold (GC=F): $1,570.10 per ounce, up $0.10 or 0.01%
NEW YORK, NY - FEBRUARY 04: Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on on February 4, 2020 in New York City. The markets rebounded after a fall last week on coronavirus fears. (Photo by Eduardo Munoz Alvarez/Getty Images)
(Reuters) - Shares of Uber Technologies Inc (UBER.N) rose on Friday after the ride-hailing company laid out an ambitious plan to be profitable by the end of 2020, a year ahead of its previous target as it tries to squash Wall Street doubts over its long-term viability.
FILE PHOTO: File photo: The company logo for Uber Technologies Inc is seen at the New York Stock Exchange , May 10, 2019. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo. RB
Uber shares, which were down almost 50% percent at the end of last year from its public launch, jumped 7% in trade before the bell as investors were also smitten by the company’s aggressive plan to cut costs.
Chief Executive Officer Dara Khosrowshahi is also aiming to bring in more repeat-customer business and try to increase use of premium ride services.
“We give Uber (and its board) major credit for finally listening to investors and putting the brakes on its 1980’s Rock Star-like spending habits,” brokerage Wedbush Securities said.
Khosrowshahi has been trying to change the company’s image since replacing co-founder Travis Kalanick in 2017 after a series of complaints over his behavior.
“(We) believe the focus on quality bookings shows discipline as Uber emphasized the era of growth at all costs is over,” analysts at JP Morgan said.
At least 10 brokerages raised price targets after Uber posted quarterly results that beat estimates.
Shares are up at $39.51 in pre-market trading.
Still, some analysts remained skeptical about Uber’s investments in the highly competitive food delivery market, which it moved into just a few years ago.
Eric Ross, an analyst at Cascend Securities, said he preferred the stock of Uber’s smaller ride-hailing competitor, Lyft Inc (LYFT.O) because it does not invest in expensive side projects.
Uber has vastly diversified its business over the past five years.
While the company has pulled out of food delivery in some major emerging markets to cut costs, it is also developing self-driving cars, working on long-haul trucking operations and even planning commercial passenger drone shuttles.
Uber is also facing regulatory probes over the classification of its drivers for its Rides business as freelancers when they are effectively working full-time for the company and still expects a loss of more than $1 billion this year.
Reporting by Neha Malara, Aakash Jagadeesh Babu and Jasmine I S in Bengaluru; Editing by Bernard Orr
The board of directors unanimously accepted Thiam's resignation at a meeting on Thursday, appointing Credit Suisse(CS) veteran Thomas Gottstein as the new CEO, the Swiss investment bank said in a statement Friday.
Last year, Credit Suisse's ex-chief operating officer, Pierre-Olivier Bouée, was implicated in two separate spying operations, one involving the former head of wealth management Iqbal Khan. Khan had defected to crosstown rival UBS andBouée reportedly feared that he might try to poach Credit Suisse employees and clients. The bank said he had ordered the surveillance to protect its interests.
Bouée stepped down after that operation came to light. More recently, he was blamed for ordering a spying operation on Credit Suisse's former head of human resources for several days last February.
"I had no knowledge of the observation of two former colleagues. It undoubtedly disturbed Credit Suisse and caused anxiety and hurt. I regret that this happened and it should never have taken place," Thiam said in the statement.
Thiam will step down following the presentation of 2019's fourth quarter and annual results next week.
Credit Suisse said previously that former COO Bouée had not informed Thiam or any other member of the bank's senior leadership of the surveillance on Khan. It added in December that it found no indication that Thiam and other members of the executive board or board of directors knew anything about the second spying case until the media reported on it.
Bouée and Thiam worked closely together for nearly two decades at various firms before joining the Swiss bank, according to their Credit Suisse biographies. The pair were at McKinsey in Paris between 2000 and 2002. Bouée followed Thiam to British insurer Aviv (AVVIY)in 2004. They both joined Prudential, another British insurer, in 2008 before heading to Credit Suisse in 2015.
Shares in Credit Suisse lost as much as 5% in Zurich on Friday, before trading about 2.5% lower.The stock has fallen 46% since Thiambecame CEO, reflecting a challenging period for European banks, which have had to contend with fallinginvestmentbanking revenue and the impact of record low interest rates on lending margins. Shares in major rival UBS(UBS)have droppedabout 40% over the same period.
Thiam was a surprising choice to lead the bank.He had no direct investmentbanking experience and was an outsider to the closeted world of Swiss finance. At the time, Credit SuisseChairman Urs Rohner cited his experience in wealth management, which has become a much bigger focus for European banks as they tried to offset the investment banking decline and the impact of negative rates.
Under Thiam, Credit Suisse implemented a three-year drive to focus on managing the assets of wealthy clients, scale back investment banking and restructure its global markets business. Analysts say the bankstill needs to do more to shift its resources away from investment banking in New York and London to wealth management in Asia.
Credit Suisse posted a $3 billion loss in its 2015 financial year. Those losses narrowed in Thiam's first years in charge before the bank returned to profit in 2018. On Friday, Rohner credited Thiam with returning the bank to profit and placing it "on a very solid foundation."
Still, Credit Suisse has now handed the reigns back to an insider. Gottstein has been with the bank for more than two decades and has worked in the industry for more than 30 years.He has been responsible for the bank's Swiss businesssince 2015, Credit Suisse said.
In Friday's statement, the bank's lead independent director Severin Schwan said Rohner had led the board "commendably during this turbulent time."
"After careful deliberations, the Board has been unanimous in its actions, as well as in reaffirming its full support for the chairman to complete his term until April 2021," Schwan added.
