OPEC and its non-OPEC allies in the production cut deal achieved a compliance rate of more than 200 percent with their cuts in September, mainly due to last month’s attacks on vital oil infrastructure in OPEC’s largest producer Saudi Arabia, sources with knowledge of the matter told Reuters on Monday.
Last month, Saudi Arabia witnessed an unprecedented attack on its oil infrastructure, which knocked 5.7 million bpd - or 5 percent of global oil supply - offline.
Due to this attack, OPEC’s total production slumped by 1.318 million bpd from August to 28.491 million bpd in September, according to the secondary sources in OPEC’s closely-watched Monthly Oil Market Report.
This figure, reported by OPEC last week - is very close to the Platts survey from earlier last week which found that OPEC pumped 28.45 million bpd of crude oil last month, down by 1.48 million bpd from August - the steepest monthly drop in nearly 17 years.
According to OPEC’s secondary sources, production in Saudi Arabia plunged by 1.28 million bpd to 8.564 million bpd in September. The Saudis, however, self-reported to OPEC that production was down by just 660,000 bpd in September from August, at 9.129 million bpd.
Crude oil production in Iran further declined, by 34,000 bpd to 2.159 million bpd, amid the U.S. sanctions restricting Iranian oil exports. Venezuela’s crude oil production plunged again, by 82,000 bpd to average just 644,000 bpd in September, according to OPEC’s secondary sources.
The largest non-OPEC producer part of the pact, Russia, saw its oil production inch down in September, to 11.25 million bpd from 11.29 million bpd in August, but still above Moscow’s cap under the deal. Russia has vowed that it is still looking to comply with its share of the cuts.
By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com
More Top Reads From Oilprice.com:
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October 14, 2019 at 09:15PM
(Kitco News) - Gold and silver prices are higher in early U.S. trading Monday, on some safe-haven demand as trader and investor risk aversion is keener to start the trading week. December gold futures were last up $10.10 an ounce at 1,498.50. December Comex silver prices were last up $0.096 at $17.64 an ounce.
Asian and European stock markets were mostly weaker overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins. The shine of Friday afternoon’s U.S.-China “Phase 1” trade agreement has quickly worn off. After having the weekend to ponder the matter traders and investors now reckon the agreement is fraught with potholes that are likely derail it. There are now reports China wants more talks before even signing the Phase 1 agreement. “The devil is in the details,” as the saying goes.
Also, the optimism expressed late last week regarding a U.K.-European Union agreement on Brexit has dimmed.
There was more dour economic news coming out of China to start the trading week. China’s exports to the U.S. dropped 22% in September, year-on-year. China’s total exports fell 3.2% in the month. China’s total imports in September were down 8.5%.
All of the above are producing some new safe-haven demand for the gold and silver markets.
Nymex crude oil prices are lower and trading around $53.50 a barrel today. The other key “outside market” sees the U.S. dollar index modestly up in early U.S. trading.
There is no major U.S. economic data due for release Monday, as banks and the U.S. government are closed for the Columbus Day holiday.
Technically, the gold bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Still, a five-week-old downtrend line is in place on the daily bar chart and needs to be negated to give the bulls fresh technical strength. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close in December futures above solid resistance at $1,525.00. Bears' next near-term downside price breakout objective is pushing December futures prices below solid technical support at the October low of $1,465.00. First resistance is seen at Friday’s high of $1,508.00 and then at $1,520.00. First support is seen at the overnight low of $1,487.10 and then at last week’s low of $1,478.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5
December silver futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but need to negate a five-week-old downtrend line still in place on the daily bar chart to gain fresh power. Silver bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $18.50 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the October low of $16.94. First resistance is seen at Friday’s high of $17.785 and then at last week’s high of $18.00. Next support is seen at last week’s low of $17.305 and then at $17.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.
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October 14, 2019 at 07:19PM
The Emera Oval will be open on Monday, weather permitting.
Halifax Public Gardens
Open from 7 a.m. to a half hour before dusk.
Parking
On-street parking meter spaces are free on Monday however motorists are reminded to abide by other posted signage.
311 citizen contact centres
The 311 call centre will be operating on regular hours, 8 a.m. to 8 p.m., on Monday. The five customer service centres that provide in-person access to municipal services and payments will be closed on Monday, reopening for regular business hours on Tuesday, Oct. 15.
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October 14, 2019 at 04:00PM
It takes the stamina of an athlete to run up the side of a steep mountain the way Lann Dickson does.
"Nothing about it is easy," said Dickson.
"A lot of people quit in the first week or two, it definitely breaks a lot of people."
The veteran tree planter zig-zags across the mountainside in Fraser Canyon near Boston Bar, B.C., dodging stumps and branches, with 300 seedlings tucked into pouches strapped around his waist. Without losing a beat, Dickson pierces the ground with his shovel and slings a seedling into the ground. Then he's off to the next spot he eyes several metres away.
Dickson has been tree planting in B.C. for 24 years, and skilled workers like him are in extremely high demand right now.
And that's before the ambitious campaign promises by federal parties to plant billions more trees across Canada are even factored in.
Experienced tree planters like Lann Dickson are in high demand, because they know how to move quickly and safely across tricky terrain, and have the skills to sow hundreds of trees a day. (Tina Lovgreen/CBC)
B.C. alone needs to plant an estimated 48 million more trees in 2020 than it did last year in an effort to restore massive areas burned in the province after two record-breaking wildfires, and to promote carbon sequestration.
The Western Forestry Contractors' Association estimates the increase may be the largest leap in planting volume in the industry's 50-year history, going from 270 million seedlings this year to as many as 318 million seedlings next year.
In addition to normal projects to reforest trees harvested for logging, B.C. is planning to plant millions more trees next year in areas burned by wildfire. (Tina Lovgreen/CBC)
Labour shortage
The industry estimates it employs roughly 4,500 workers. It will require 500 to 1,000 more planters to sow all those extra seedlings next year.
"It's going to be a challenge for sure, [with] a lot more trees coming to market this year than past years," said Timo Scheiber, CEO of Brinkman Reforestation.
Timo Scheiber, CEO of Brinkman Reforestation, says he believes it’s a great time to be a tree planter, as there is a huge need to reforest areas harvested and burned down by wildfires. (Tina Lovgreen/CBC)
Adding to that extra demand, the search for reliable and experienced planters could skyrocket after a recent landmark study by Swiss researchers found that tree planting could play a huge role in combating climate change. Federal leaders on the campaign trail jumped on the study, and two parties have promised to plant billions of trees if elected.
The Liberals have pledged to plant 2 billion more trees over the next decade across the country to get Canada closer to carbon neutrality.
The Greens have an even more ambitious goal — 10 billion trees over the next three decades.
Tree planting is demanding work, and planters aren't paid by the hour - they're paid by the tree, so they have to work quickly if they want to make money. (Tina Lovgreen/CBC)
For tree planters like Jeff Andrews, who has been doing this for 17 years, the extra attention being paid to his trade is good news.
"Nice for us to be seen as skilled workers, not just a kid job you come out to do and mess around with for a while. It's hard work and can get quite dangerous," Andrews said.
But it's also putting big pressure on planting companies that are struggling to staff their operations.
It has become increasingly challenging for them to recruit and retain reliable staff. Besides the physical challenges, tree planting is seasonal work, and there are no benefits or guaranteed hours and wages.
Planters get compensated by the number of trees they get into the ground. They're paid anywhere from a dime to 28 cents per tree, depending on the type of terrain they are working in.
Jeff Andrews has been planting trees for 17 years. He says he enjoys the seasonal aspect of the job, because it allows him to work in the film industry the rest of the year. (Tina Lovgreen/CBC)
"Younger people are saying they will stay home and work at McDonald's or landscape. Stay closer to home and make slightly over minimum wage … [rather] than going through hardships of planting," said Sylvia Fenwick-Wilson, project supervisor for Zanzibar Reforestation.
The industry bumped up wages 10 to 15 per cent this year, but the job is still a hard sell.
The Greens say if they are elected they will adopt a cost-sharing model to get better compensation for planters.
"If we want to get serious about reforestation, we need to start treating planters like the valuable silviculture workers they are, rather than like transients trying to pick up minimal compensation in a gig economy," said a Green Party spokesperson via email.
The Liberals did not lay out the specifics of their plan, but said they would use revenue from the Trans Mountain pipeline to pay for their overall efforts to use nature — including tree planting — to combat climate change.
The party said it would also work on a cost-share model with businesses and municipalities to increase the amount of tree cover across Canada.
Zanzibar project supervisor Sylvia Fenwick-Wilson says a lot of people are drawn to tree planting because of the outdoor aspect of the work, although the strenuous nature of the job drives others away. (Tina Lovgreen/CBC)
UCLA Environmental Lawyer Jesse Reynolds said political promises of tree planting can be appealing to environmentally minded voters.
"Perhaps more important politically, tree planting is a highly visible act. Candidates and others can literally show their actions through photo opportunities, and voters can visualize the results," he said.
But in addition to addressing the cost and labour shortages, Reynolds added, making good on those lofty political promises is also going to mean finding space to plant all the trees.
The Greens say they will focus on reforestation, planting on previous forest lands that have been harvested or burned.
The Liberals say they will consult with experts to find out where and what type of trees to plant.
Snow has already started to dust parts of the mountain near the Fraser Canyon, signaling the end of tree planting season this year. (Tina Lovgreen/CBC)
But Reynolds says neither approach alone will be enough to accommodate all the trees the parties are promising to plant, and which are needed to address climate change.
"The needed land is already in use. Land where forests could grow is variously cropland, pasture, deforested and not farmed, or presently forested," he explained.
He suggests the government would need to either buy land from farmers and ranchers, or pay them to become long-term forest managers.
Whether ambitious federal reforestation initiatives get green-lighted or not, there's no question that skilled tree planters will have no shortage of work for the foreseeable future.
"They realize we are an essential job and that they need us," said Dickson.
WATCH | From The National, why planting trees is no easy climate change solution:
If you think planting trees is an easy solution, chances are you've never done it. 2:27
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October 14, 2019 at 03:00PM
Johnson & Johnson faced lawsuits from at least 103,300 people or entities in U.S. courts at the middle of this year.
Photo:
mark ralston/Agence France-Presse/Getty Images
Johnson & Johnson,
facing lawsuits from more than 100,000 plaintiffs over its product safety and marketing tactics, has taken the aggressive strategy of battling many of the cases in court.
And it is losing. A lot.
Juries and judges have ordered the health-products giant to pay billions of dollars in several recent trials over claims that J&J’s signature baby powder and certain drugs and medical devices injured people, and that its marketing practices fueled the opioid-addiction epidemic.
The latest: A Philadelphia jury last week awarded $8 billion in punitive damages to a man claiming his use of J&J’s antipsychotic Risperdal when he was a boy caused abnormal breast enlargement. J&J says it properly disclosed the drug’s risks and benefits, and plans to appeal the verdict.
In August, an Oklahoma judge ordered J&J to pay $572 million to the state for contributing to the opioid-addiction crisis, a judgment the company is appealing. Last year, a St. Louis jury found that J&J should pay $4.7 billion to 22 women and their families who alleged the company’s baby powder caused ovarian cancer. J&J, which says the talcum powder is safe and doesn’t cause cancer, is appealing the decision.
The New Brunswick, N.J., company faced lawsuits from at least 103,300 people or entities in U.S. courts at the middle of this year, up from the 8,580 plaintiffs pending in October 2011, according to a Wall Street Journal review of J&J’s securities filings. J&J discloses the number of plaintiffs for the most significant of its product-liability cases in its filings.
The number of talc lawsuit plaintiffs surged to 15,500 as of June 30, from 1,400 in early 2016, the Journal analysis found. Plaintiffs in personal-injury lawsuits over J&J’s pelvic mesh devices for women have declined from a peak of more than 55,000 pending in 2017 but still number about 24,800.
J&J is challenging many of the lawsuits, rather than quickly settling, according to lawyers on both sides. “Their natural reflex is to fight and delay, drag it out as long as they can,” said Andy Birchfield, an attorney with Beasley Allen in Montgomery, Ala., who has sued J&J over baby powder and other products.
The Risperdal damages and some other awards are likely to be reduced by judges, and possibly overturned, on appeal. Yet the losses signal J&J may ultimately have to pay a costly sum to resolve the lawsuits. The opioid litigation alone could cost J&J $5 billion to $10 billion to settle, Wells Fargo analysts have estimated.
J&J has won its share of trials. The company argues science supports the safety of its products, and that its increasing caseload is a product of aggressive plaintiff’s lawyers eyeing the company’s big pockets. It is in the company’s best interest, its outside lawyers say, to deter more lawsuits lacking merit by avoiding premature settlements now.
J&J is approaching the litigation “with an eye to managing this onslaught overall, and not creating false incentives for lawyers to file even more claims that are marginal at best,” said John Beisner, a partner with Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom LLP who is defending J&J in litigation over talc and some other products.
J&J may be following in the footsteps of
Merck
& Co., which took to trial a number of lawsuits alleging its Vioxx painkiller caused heart attacks and strokes, said Nora Freeman Engstrom, a law professor at Stanford Law School who studies personal-injury litigation.
Merck won more verdicts than it lost, and ultimately agreed in 2007 to settle nearly all of the lawsuits for $4.85 billion, lower than analysts initially expected. Yet a key difference, Ms. Engstrom said, is that J&J is battling litigation on a large scale for multiple products.
Concerns about J&J’s litigation risk have weighed on its stock, which is down about 12% since its 52-week high in December. Some analysts say the slide reflects investors’ expectations that J&J may have to spend from $20 billion to $50 billion to resolve all of the litigation. J&J had $81.6 billion in revenue last year.
In August, Moody’s Investors Service changed its outlook for J&J’s bond rating to negative from stable, citing uncertainty over the outcome of litigation.
Eye-catching verdicts also are hurting the company’s reputation for trustworthiness, amassed from decades of careful marketing to parents and its famous handling of a Tylenol scare. Recent legal losses have dropped J&J to 57th out of 58 companies in a pharmaceutical reputation index developed by Alva Group, which bases its scores on mentions in the news, social media and analyst reports. J&J was in the index’s top 10 in 2014.
A J&J spokesman said the company’s reputation remains strong because it has developed high-quality consumer products and treatments for cancer and HIV. He said the company’s victories at trial and reversals of losses on appeal don’t garner the same level of attention as high-dollar trial losses.
Some lawyers say the longer litigation continues, the easier the cases become for plaintiffs to win because more documentation is unearthed and plaintiffs’ lawyers can refine their strategies based on earlier trials.
“The cases only get better for plaintiffs, not worse,” said Richard Golomb, a Philadelphia attorney representing women who have sued over J&J’s baby powder.
J&J, however, has a reason for holding out on a large talc settlement. It has asked a federal judge in New Jersey overseeing pretrial proceedings for a majority of the talc suits to exclude testimony from the plaintiffs’ expert witnesses who claim talc causes cancer. Plaintiffs’ lawyers say the testimony should be allowed.
If the judge sides with J&J, it could effectively wipe out most of the talc lawsuits; a decision is expected in the coming months.
“The greatest and biggest deal ever made for our Great Patriot Farmers in the history of our Country,” as President Trump described it, triggered a broad rally in U.S. stocks on Friday. The Dow
DJIA, +1.21%
and S&P
SPX, +1.09%
closed off session highs, but buyers are wary amid a report China wants more talks.
Indeed, our call of the day, suggests last week’s bullish reaction may have been overdone.
Morgan Stanley
MS, +2.14%
says those who are banking on this trade deal wrapping up are getting ahead of themselves and that the deal with China is an “uncertain” arrangement at best, according to a note from strategists Michael Zezas and Meredith Pickett.
“There is not yet a viable path to existing tariffs declining, and tariff escalation remains a meaningful risk,” the bank wrote. “Thus, we do not yet expect a meaningful rebound in corporate behavior that would drive global growth expectations higher.”
Nevertheless, investors seem to be focusing on the silver lining. Trump said Washington will suspend a tariff hike planned this week on $250 billion of Chinese goods, in return for China agreeing to buy as much as $50 billion of American farm goods.
Future hikes remain in place, though.
For real progress to be made, Morgan Stanley says it will need to see more progress on issues like enforcement and intellectual-property protections.
“Until such evidence is available, we must conclude that this pause is more ‘uncertain’ than ‘durable,’” the strategists wrote.
The chart
Kevin Muir, strategist at East West Investment Management, calls this illustration from Crescat Capital’s Tavi Costa his “new favourite chart.”
Outlook for rising prices is at a fresh 40-year low while core & median CPI are at decade highs.
Inflation tends to surprise investors at the top of the business cycle.
I mostly agree with the deflationary concerns, but is inflation the most underrated risk out there? pic.twitter.com/n8JDfycxOY
“Tavi’s chart illustrates clearly the market is completely complacent about inflation,” Muir wrote on Twitter
TWTR, +2.07%
. “Yeah, I know the deflationists will argue that it will resolve itself with a GFC-type-bust. Maybe, but true financial crises occur when something happens that NO-ONE-BELIEVES-CAN-HAPPEN.”
Away from the markets, Gordon Sondland, the U.S. ambassador caught up in the latest White House controversy, is expected to tell Congress his text message reassuring another envoy that there was no quid pro quo in their interactions with Ukraine was based solely on what President Trump told him. Stay tuned.
There’s lots of build-up heading into Tuesday night’s Democratic presidential debate, and with Elizabeth Warren challenging Joe Biden for the front-runner label, the backdrop is significantly different from prior discussions.
Banks are closed for Columbus Day, and there are no economic releases on the schedule. Notable reports coming up this week include retail sales figures and September housing starts, due out Wednesday and Thursday, respectively.
This dark video was shown to a bunch of Trump supporters at the president’s Miami resort last week, according to the New York Times.
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![Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]](https://www.kitco.com/images/live/gold.gif?0.2924175530478188){kind=small}
![Live 24 hours silver chart [ Kitco Inc. ]](https://www.kitco.com/images/live/silver.gif)
