Global stocks and the pound soar as euphoric traders cheer a US-China trade deal and a landslide UK election result - Business Insider

Getty/Scott Olson

• Global stocks surged to all-time highs Friday after US President Donald Trump offered to scrap tariffs on Chinese goods set to go live Sunday and slash existing tariffs.
• On Thursday, Boris Johnson's Conservatives delivered a landslide victory in Britain's general election that paved the way for Brexit.
• Britain's FTSE 250 hit a new high Friday, and the Euro Stoxx 600 soared to a record as well, while futures signaled the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq would rally from record levels.
• Domestic-focused UK stocks including Royal Bank of Scotland, Lloyds Banking Group, and easyJet rallied by 10% or more.
• "Some investors will see today as Christmas come early, as we see a convergence of two critical political risks coming to some resolve," one economist said.
• View Business Insider's homepage for more stories.

  ---

Global stocks surged to all-time highs on Friday after US President Donald Trump offered to scrap tariffs on Chinese goods set to go live Sunday and slash existing tariffs as part of a proposed trade deal with China, and Prime Minister Boris Johnson's Conservatives achieved a landslide victory in the UK's general election.

The MSCI index of developed and emerging world equity markets touched an all-time high Friday. In the US, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq indexes closed at record levels on Thursday, and futures signaled stocks were set to rally again at Friday's market open.

Britain's FTSE 250 of domestically exposed stocks hit a new high Friday, and the Euro Stoxx 600 reached an intraday record.

Domestic-focused UK stocks including Royal Bank of Scotland, Lloyds Banking Group, and easyJet all rallied by 10% or more. The British pound rose by 1.8% against the US dollar to $1.34.

On Thursday, Trump signed off on roughly halving tariffs on $360 billion of Chinese goods, and suspending a planned expansion of duties to $160 billion worth of other Chinese goods, as part of a proposed trade deal with China, according to the Wall Street Journal. Under the agreement, China would purchase $50 billion worth of US agricultural goods and other American products next year.

Also Thursday, the Tories won at least 364 seats in the House of Commons, surpassing the 326 needed for a majority and paving the way for Britain to leave the European Union.

"Some investors will see today as Christmas come early, as we see a convergence of two critical political risks coming to some resolve," Dean Turner, an economist at UBS Wealth Management, said in an email. "Indications of a strong electoral outcome in the UK and developments towards a Phase 1 US-China trade deal have lifted the mood in the markets."

Here's the market roundup as of 12 p.m. in London (7 a.m. in New York).

• US stocks were set to rise, with futures underlying the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.4% and Nasdaq futures up 0.5%.
• Asian equities climbed, with China's Shanghai Composite up 1.8%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng up 2.6%, and Japan's Nikkei up 2.6%.
• European markets were jumping, with Germany's DAX up 1.3% and the Euro Stoxx 50 up 1.34%.
• Oil prices climbed, with West Texas Intermediate up 1.2% at about $59.90 a barrel and Brent crude up 1.5% at $65.20.
• The pound held onto post-election Thursday-evening gains, and was up 1.7% to $1.34 on Friday morning.
• The FTSE 100 benchmark of UK large caps rallied 1.9%, weighed down by internationally focused companies that decline when the pound rallies. A higher pound devalues revenue generated abroad.

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2019-12-13 11:48:45Z
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Global stocks and the pound soar as euphoric traders cheer a US-China trade deal and a landslide UK election result - Business Insider

Getty/Scott Olson

• Global stocks surged to all-time highs Friday after US President Donald Trump struck a deal with China to suspend new tariffs set to go live Sunday.
• On Thursday, Boris Johnson's Conservatives delivered a landslide victory in Britain's general election that paved the way for Brexit.
• Britain's FTSE 250 hit a new high Friday, and the Euro Stoxx 600 soared to a record as well, while futures signaled the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq would rally from record levels.
• Domestic-focused UK stocks including Royal Bank of Scotland, Lloyds Banking Group, and easyJet rallied by 10% or more.
• "Some investors will see today as Christmas come early, as we see a convergence of two critical political risks coming to some resolve," one economist said.
• View Business Insider's homepage for more stories.

  ---

Global stocks surged to all-time highs on Friday after US President Donald Trump struck a preliminary trade deal with China to suspend new tariffs set to go live Sunday and Boris Johnson's Conservatives achieved a landslide victory in the UK's general election.

The MSCI index of developed and emerging world equity markets touched an all-time high Friday. In the US, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq indexes closed at record levels on Thursday, and futures signaled stocks were set to rally again at Friday's market open.

Britain's FTSE 250 of domestically exposed stocks hit a new high Friday, and the Euro Stoxx 600 reached an intraday record.

Domestic-focused UK stocks including Royal Bank of Scotland, Lloyds Banking Group, and easyJet all rallied by 10% or more. The British pound rose by 1.8% against the US dollar to $1.34.

Trump reportedly signed a phase-one agreement with China on Thursday to stave off an expansion of duties to $160 billion worth of smartphones, laptops, toys, clothing, and other Chinese goods. Also Thursday, the Tories won at least 364 seats in the House of Commons, surpassing the 326 needed for a majority and paving the way for Britain to leave the European Union.

"Some investors will see today as Christmas come early, as we see a convergence of two critical political risks coming to some resolve," Dean Turner, an economist at UBS Wealth Management, said in an email. "Indications of a strong electoral outcome in the UK and developments towards a Phase 1 US-China trade deal have lifted the mood in the markets."

Here's the market roundup as of 9:01 a.m. in London (4:01 a.m. in New York).

• US stocks were set to rise, with futures underlying the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.4% and Nasdaq futures up 0.6%.
• Asian equities climbed, with China's Shanghai Composite up 1.8%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng up 2.6%, and Japan's Nikkei up 2.6%.
• European markets were jumping, with Germany's DAX up 1.2% and the Euro Stoxx 50 up 1.3%.
• Oil prices climbed, with West Texas Intermediate up 0.8% at about $59.60 a barrel and Brent crude up 1% at $64.80.
• The pound held onto postelection Thursday-evening gains, and was up 1.6% to $1.34 on Friday morning.
• The FTSE 100 benchmark of UK large caps rallied 1.7%, weighed down by internationally focused companies that decline when the pound rallies. A higher pound weakens revenue generated abroad.

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2019-12-13 09:31:43Z
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5 things to know before the stock market opens Thursday - CNBC

1. Stocks set for lower open with rate policy and trade talks on the minds of investors

Jerome Powell, chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve, speaks during a House Budget Committee hearing in Washington, D.C., U.S., on Thursday, Nov. 14, 2019.

Andrew Harrer | Bloomberg | Getty Images

U.S. stock futures were lower Thursday morning after weekly jobless claims jumped to their highest level since 2017. On the monetary policy front, the European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged Thursday. It's Christine Lagarde's first meeting as ECB president. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve ended its final two-day meeting of the year with no change in U.S. rates and no intention to move either way anytime soon. Central bankers cut rates three times in 2019. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday, at his post-meeting news conference, that the Fed would like to see a move in inflation that is significant and persistent before it were to raise rates again. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed modestly higher Wednesday, breaking a two-session losing streak.

2. Trump to meet with trade advisors on China deal ahead of Sunday tariffs deadline

President Donald Trump speaks after announcing and initial deal with China while meeting the special Envoy and Vice Premier of the People's Republic of China Liu He at the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, DC on October 11, 2019.

Nicholas Kamm | AFP | Getty Images

Uncertainty about whether the U.S. and China can reach a "phase one" trade deal, or at least agree to a detente, before Sunday's deadline for new American tariffs against Chinese products has been hanging over the stock market. On Thursday, President Donald Trump is expected to meet with his top trade advisors to discuss the planned Dec. 15 tariffs on some $160 billion in Chinese goods, three sources familiar with the plans told Reuters. Officials circulated talking points downplaying the repercussions such a tariff hike would have on the U.S. economy ahead of Trump's meeting with Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, and White House advisers Larry Kudlow and Peter Navarro.

3. UK voters head to the polls, with Brexit's future hanging in the balance

Polling Station sign is seen two days before General Elections in London, Great Britain on December 10, 2019.

NurPhoto | NurPhoto | Getty Images

Voters across the U.K. are heading to the polls Thursday for a general election that is likely to shape the country for decades to come. The snap vote was called by the government led by Conservative Party leader and Prime Minister Boris Johnson because of a parliamentary impasse over the Brexit deal he had negotiated with the EU. Johnson and his Party are aiming to win enough seats to give them a majority in the 650-seat parliament that will enable them to pass their Brexit deal, formally known as the "Withdrawal Agreement." The prime minister has repeatedly said a vote for his party means the ability to "get Brexit done."

4. Saudi Aramco hits $2 trillion valuation on second day of trading

A sign of Saudi Aramco's initial public offering (IPO) is seen during a news conference by the state oil company at the Plaza Conference Center in Dhahran, Saudi Arabia November 3, 2019.

Hamad I Mohammed | Reuters

Shares of Saudi Aramco surged on their second day of public trading, pushing the kingdom's record IPO to a $2 trillion valuation, briefly touching Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's long-held target for the company. The $2 trillion figure, nearly $1 trillion higher than the world's next-largest public companies Apple and Microsoft, was long ridiculed and regarded with disbelief by much of the international financial community. Riyadh on Wednesday made history by listing 1.5% of its state-run oil giant on its local stock exchange, the Saudi Tadawul.

5. Warren's wealth tax would raise $1 trillion less than she estimates: Wharton study

Democratic presidential hopeful Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren gestures as she arrives for a town hall devoted to LGBTQ issues hosted by CNN and the Human rights Campaign Foundation at The Novo in Los Angeles on October 10, 2019.

ROBYN BECK | AFP | Getty Images

A new study from the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School finds that Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Elizabeth Warren's proposed wealth tax on the richest Americans will generate at least $1 trillion less than what the campaign claims, potentially undermining the key funding source for her plans to expand government-backed health care, education and other programs. Warren's tax, if implemented in 2021, would raise between $2.3 trillion and $2.7 trillion in additional revenue over 10 years, well below the $3.75 trillion her campaign estimates, according to the university's report viewed by CNBC.

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2019-12-12 13:05:00Z
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Mario who? Christine Lagarde steps into the ECB spotlight - CNN

Time for Christine Lagarde to step into the spotlight. The European Central Bank president presides over her first policy decision on Thursday, followed by a highly-anticipated press conference.

What to watch for: So far, investors have read Lagarde, previously the International Monetary Fund chief, as a dovish figure in the mold of her predecessor, the much-celebrated Mario Draghi. But they don't have much to go on. Expect central bank watchers to scrutinize her remarks for clues about both where she'll take monetary policy and what kind of leader she'll be.

"The excitement to the run-up doesn't really stem from possible policy changes but rather from how her communication style will differ from Draghi," ING economist Carsten Brzeski said in a note to clients.

Reminder: Lagarde trained as a lawyer, not an economist.

The ECB isn't expected to announce any policy changes, so the market reaction to the meeting may be subdued. But investors are watching closely for more details on the ECB's plans for a big review of its monetary policy strategy next year.

Jörg Krämer, the chief economist at Commerzbank, thinks it's time for reforms. "Changes in all elements of its strategy are needed including the target, instruments and communication," he said in a note Thursday. If the ECB agrees, 2020 could be a year of major changes.

Meanwhile, in Washington: The Federal Reserve said Wednesday that it would keep interest rates steady, halting a series of cuts that lifted markets and countered recession fears amid ongoing trade uncertainty.

Thirteen of the 17 participants on the Federal Open Market Committee's policy-setting body now anticipate keeping interest rates level in 2020, my CNN Business colleague Donna Borak reports.

"The Fed is likely to sit on their hands for the foreseeable future barring a material change in the economic outlook," said Charlie Ripley, senior investment strategist at Allianz Investment Management.

Aramco gets its $2 trillion valuation. Can it last?

Saudi Aramco shares zoomed higher on Thursday, turning the massive state oil producer into the world's first $2 trillion company and achieving the valuation long sought by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

Shares of the Saudi oil monopoly jumped nearly 10% again on Thursday, reaching 38.55 riyals ($10.28) per share. It's a win for the company after a difficult IPO process that generated only muted interest from international investors.

Know this stat: Aramco is by far the most valuable company in the world, dwarfing runner up Apple, which is worth around $1.2 trillion.

But Aramco, which publicly listed a 1.5% sliver of its business, still has plenty of doubters. "Saudi Aramco is the largest, most profitable oil company in the world — but size is not everything," Bernstein analysts Neil Beveridge and Oswald Clint told clients Thursday, initiating coverage of the stock with an "underperform" rating.

Beveridge and Clint say that Aramco has been priced at a premium to competitors, but should trade at a discount given its comparatively weak dividend yield. They value Aramco at $1.36 trillion — nowhere near $2 trillion.

"Aramco could trade in a league of its own for some time, but the stock market is a weighing machine in the long term and the laws of economic gravity will eventually apply," they said.

OPEC's efforts to prop up prices may fail

An effort unveiled just last week by OPEC, Russia and other oil producing nations to support crude prices may fall flat, my CNN Business colleague Hanna Ziady reports.

That's according to the latest report from the International Energy Agency, which warned Thursday that deeper production cuts will not be enough to address a global supply glut.

Even if all the countries adhere to an agreement to deepen existing cuts by an additional 500,000 barrels per day — bringing total cuts to 1.7 million barrels daily — the agency predicts a surplus of 700,000 barrels per day in the first three months of next year.

This doesn't bode well for the price of oil. Brent crude, the global benchmark, is trading at roughly $64 per barrel. It was at $63 before the meeting. "The market has done its own sums and the reaction to oil's new deal has so far been muted," IEA said in its report.

UBS said in a recent note that it thinks Brent oil prices will stay in the $60 to $70 range due to compliance concerns, economic uncertainty and ambiguity in the outlook for US shale.

UK voters head to the polls for the country's third general election in four years. Follow along here for live updates.

Also today:

• The European Central Bank makes its interest rate announcement at 7:45 a.m. ET, followed by President Christine Lagarde's first press conference.
• Adobe (ADBE), Broadcom (AVGO), Costco (COST) and Oracle (ORCL) report results after the bell.

Coming tomorrow: Markets respond to the UK election results.

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2019-12-12 12:09:00Z
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Delta partners with Wheels Up, creating one of the world's largest fleets of private aircraft - CNBC

As an airliner prepares to land, a bird takes off at the Gravelly Point park that's just off the end of the runway near Reagan National Airport.

Michael S. Williamson | The Washington Post | Getty Images

Delta Airlines is taking a minority stake in private aviation start-up Wheels Up, in a move that establishes one of the world's largest operated fleets of private aircraft, the company said Thursday.

Once the transaction is approved, which is expected in early 2020, Wheels Up will have a fleet of 190 airplanes and more than 8,000 customers, Delta said in a press release.

"This groundbreaking partnership will democratize private aviation – making the convenience of private jet travel accessible to more consumers," Delta CEO Ed Bastian said in a statement. He added that the agreement "is the latest step in Delta's ongoing effort to build partnerships that extend Delta's brand beyond its core business."

The company declined to disclose the transaction's financial terms. Delta added, however, that there will be no expected impact to its 2019 financial guidance. Additionally, Delta will hold an equity position in Wheels Up, which said in August that it had completed a $128 million round of funding that valued the company at $1.1 billion.

As CNBC previously reported, industry giants such as VistaJet, Directional Aviation, and Wheels Up are vying to become the dominant players in the space.

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2019-12-12 12:03:00Z
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Aramco shares climb on second day to top $2 trillion valuation - MarketWatch

Getty Images

Saudi and foreign investors stand in front of the logo of Saudi state oil giant Aramco

RIYADH, Saudi Arabia (AP) — Shares in Saudi Aramco gained on the second day of trading Thursday, propelling the oil and gas company to a more than $2 trillion valuation, where it holds the title of the world’s most valuable listed company.

Shares jumped in trading to reach up to 38.60 Saudi riyals, or $10.29 before noon, three hours before trading closes.

Aramco 2222, +0.00%  has sold a 1.5% share to mostly Saudi investors and local Saudi and Gulf-based funds.

With gains made from just two days of trading, Aramco sits comfortably ahead of the world’s largest companies, including Apple AAPL, +0.85%  , the second largest company in the world valued at $1.19 trillion.

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is the architect of the effort to list Aramco, touting it as a way to raise capital for the kingdom’s sovereign wealth fund, which would then develop new cities and lucrative projects across the country that create jobs for young Saudis.

He had sought a $2 trillion valuation for Aramco when he first announced in 2015 plans to sell a sliver of the state-owned company.

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2019-12-12 10:40:00Z
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Top 5 Things to Know in the Market on Thursday, 12th December - Investing.com

Investing.com -- President Trump will confer with his senior trade experts before deciding whether or not to implement the fresh round of import tariffs on Chinese goods, which are due to take effect on Sunday. The U.K. heads to the polls with Prime Minister Boris Johnson's Conservatives still - just about - expected to win a majority. Christine Lagarde presides over her first meeting as European Central Bank president but isn't expected to change interest rates. And the International Energy Agency warns that the extra production cuts by OPEC+ won't be enough to balance the world market for at least six months. Here's what you need to know in financial markets on Thursday, 12th December.1.

1. Trump due to meet with trade advisors

President Donald Trump is due to meet with his top trade advisors ahead of Sunday’s deadline for the next round of U.S. import tariffs on Chinese goods, according to various reports.

The White House has not confirmed the meeting, but the reports suggest Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and White House advisors Larry Kudlow and Peter Navarro will be present.

The administration previously announced its intention to levy 15% tariffs on Chinese imports worth an estimated $160 billion annually. With no sign of a ‘phase-1’ deal with China being imminent, the meeting effectively boils down to a decision whether or not to delay the proposed measures. CNBC reported that officials had circulated talking points playing down the impact of the tariffs, which will cover many popular consumer goods.

2. No change seen at Lagarde's first ECB meeting, but Turkey, Brazil cut rates

Christine Lagarde will chair her first policy-making meeting of the European Central Bank’s governing council, the of which will be published at 7:45 AM ET (1245 GMT) as usual.

The focus, however, will be on Lagarde’s first at 8:30 AM ET (1330 GMT), in as much as nobody expects any change in policy so soon after Mario Draghi’s farewell package of easing measures in September.

Lagarde is expected to announce the start of a thorough review into how the ECB conducts policy, something that is likely to cover how it defines its inflation target, the policy tools it uses to pursue it and the way it communicates its decisions. The last of those may assume particular importance as Lagarde struggles to forge consensus on a bank bitterly divided over the resumption of quantitative easing.

Elsewhere, the left its key rate at -0.75% while Turkey’s cut its by 200 basis points, keeping the global trend toward easier monetary policy intact. Brazil’s central bank had also cut its key rate on Wednesday and, surprisingly, left the door open for further easing.

3. Stocks set to open slightly higher

U.S. stock markets are set to open modestly higher, building on equally modest gains after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference on Wednesday.

By 6:20 AM ET (1220 GMT), were up 22 points or 0.1%, while and were also up 0.1%. The yield on the U.S. Treasury bond edged up to 1.80%.

Trading is likely to stay dependent on noise from Washington and Beijing about the looming tariff decision.

4. The Brexit election is here

The British head to the polls for a general election, and are expected to return the Conservative Party to power with a majority – according to spread-betting companies – of some 40 seats. That is at the lower end of Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s comfort zone.

The most recent polls have suggested the Tories hold a lead of 10 points over the left-wing Labour Party at a national level, but the U.K.’s ‘first-past-the-post’ electoral system means that the final result will depend on how a few dozen marginal constituencies (swing districts) vote.

Any majority, however small, will allow Johnson to pass his EU Withdrawal Bill immediately, formalizing the U.K.’s departure from the bloc. However, the smaller his majority, the easier it will be for hardline Brexiteers to derail subsequent negotiations on the U.K.’s trading relationship with the EU, which will have far-reaching long-term consequences for the U.K. economy and its markets.

5. IEA Warns of Oil Glut in H1 2020

The global oil market will stay oversupplied in the first half of next year despite the extra production cuts announced last week by the OPEC+ group, according to the International Energy Agency’s monthly report.

The Paris-based think-tank said that global oil inventories will still swell by 700,000 barrels a day even if all the countries signing up to the cuts comply fully with their commitments (something that hasn’t happened this year).

prices were still higher, supported by the Federal Reserve's perceived dovish outlook for the next year on Wednesday.

Elsewhere, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman finally achieved his wish as domestic funds pushed Saudi Aramco's (SE:) valuation up another 10% on its second day of trading, finally reaching the $2 trillion he always thought it was worth. In unrelated developments, Harold Hamm, the leading light of the U.S. shale industry, said he’ll step down as CEO of Continental Resources (NYSE:)

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2019-12-12 11:21:00Z
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